PGL Bucharest 2025 Playoff Predictions: Which Team Will Lift the Trophy in Bucharest?
The tournament in Romania’s capital has attracted the attention of the entire community from the very beginning due to various news stories that emerged just before the event’s start. The transfer of the Turkish Eternal Fire roster to Aurora, siuhy joining Liquid on a trial period, and of course, rumors about m0NESY’s transfer to Falcons. Beyond these headlines, the tournament has also become interesting due to its participant lineup, as most top teams decided to skip the event. This means that by April 13, we’ll know the name of a team that hasn’t yet lifted a trophy in 2025. In this article, we’ll try to predict the PGL Bucharest 2025 champion, but we must admit – it won’t be easy.
What Happened in the Group Stage?
The group stage began surprising us from day one, when 5 favorites lost their debut matches and were forced to start their journey to the top 8 with a 0-1 record. As a reminder, the tournament used the Swiss system, and teams needed to earn 3 wins to advance to the playoffs. Virtus.pro, FaZe, The MongolZ, Falcons, and Liquid all started with losses, with the last three teams even finding themselves in a 0-2 hole.
Despite underdogs like the Polish team Apogee, who managed to defeat The MongolZ and Astralis, the quarterfinals lineup turned out to be quite competitive. The biggest shock was the failure of The MongolZ, who were considered the main contenders for the championship before the event began.
GamerLegion vs Falcons: degster's Last Run?
On one hand, this is the most evenly matched quarterfinal pair, but on the other hand, it’s hard to ignore their group stage meeting, where Falcons managed to win only 3 rounds across 2 maps!
Still, we suggest disregarding the previous match result and looking at the current situation. At the start of the tournament, Falcons indeed looked extremely lost, and it seemed like the team wanted to finish their performance quickly and wait for the saga with roster changes to conclude. But ultimately, the guys managed to pull themselves together and escape a very difficult situation in the group. This is surely the result of a quality conversation along the lines of, “Guys, let’s maintain professionalism and show what we can do. Don’t be afraid to play; no one will blame anyone.” The results of this presumed talk are already visible.
As for GamerLegion, they lack similar playoff experience, and it’s completely unclear how the young players will behave when stepping onto this matches. The team itself continues to impress, as they manage to assemble competitive rosters each time. The current young roster, where experienced REZ fits perfectly, looks very solid and structured. It feels like under equal conditions, they can only be beaten through superior aim and individual skill, but as we’ve already mentioned, the teams will enter the stage with different feelings and emotions. The too-easy victory in the previous BO3 might also relax GamerLegion and create an illusion of facing an easy opponent. On the positive side for GL – they don’t play Dust 2, which is one of Falcons’ most prepared maps.
NiKo and company definitely need to think carefully about the map veto and possibly pick Train or Nuke as their map. We want to take a risk and bet on Falcons in this confrontation with a 55 to 45 chance.
3DMAX vs FaZe: Will the Kings of the Arena Wake Up?
The French have been on the verge of tier-1 for a long time, but they’ve only managed to take this very important step toward the top teams now. What was the reason? Weak opponents? Good preparation? Great individual form? Or maybe the end of aggressive trash talk? It’s hard to say for sure, but the fact that 3DMAX has become significantly calmer is undeniable. Perhaps focusing on the game has finally allowed them to achieve their main goal, but how they’ll perform when playing in the playoffs also remains a mystery. Achieving their main goal might take a weight off their shoulders, but it’s also possible that the audience will instead constrain their actions and take away their confidence. The guys have a very strong Inferno, where they’re ready to compete with any team, and they also have a decent ace up their sleeve in the form of Train, which most teams still avoid.
What can FaZe respond with? Well, of course, karrigan’s magic, which time after time brings his team some magic in the playoffs. Will this be enough against the current 3DMAX? We think it’s unlikely. At the last PGL tournament in Cluj-Napoca, they were in a similar situation but managed to lose to Falcons and Astralis in the playoffs. It seems this roster is already past its prime, and they won’t be feared even in a full stadium. Our prediction: 60 to 40 in favor of 3DMAX.
Aurora vs Complexity: Are the Turks Ready to Take the Trophy?
The biggest stars of the past week still make us get used to their new tag. We think the latest news will be the main reason for their victory or defeat. Due to the transfer, they’ve received a huge amount of hate from their compatriots, and in this situation, it will either motivate them to take the trophy and make everyone change their minds, or it will start to mentally pressure them. To be honest, we believe more in the first outcome, as their conditions have definitely improved, which gives them a certain peace of mind and helps them focus only on the game. Plus, they decided to skip the next event in Australia, which means that after Romania, the Turks will finally be able to rest after 4 months of non-stop touring of tier-1 events. Going on a break with a trophy in hand and starting life in a new organization with a victory is a great motivator. As for the gameplay, the Turks are one of the few teams where each player, including the captain, can step up when needed. They are no longer a team hoping to win solely on the backs of XANTARES or woxic, and this is their main advantage.
The North Americans pleasantly surprised in the groups and looked very good. They convincingly defeated FURIA, Falcons, FaZe, and could have beaten G2. Grim, hallzerk, and Cxzi are in the top 10 players of the event and are showing excellent form, and before losing to G2, Complexity had a winning streak of 13 matches. But in the playoffs, the question of playing in front of fans arises again, which sounds extremely banal, but for this tournament, it’s actually a relevant factor for most teams.
The Turks are also not so stable in the playoffs, but they clearly have more experience of this kind, and from a map veto perspective, they’re ready to play absolutely any map. Train, Anubis, and Nuke – all these maps are very comfortable for Aurora, and on Dust 2 and Inferno, they feel more confident than Complexity. Of all opponents, the Turkish team turns out to be the most inconvenient, so we boldly assume that Aurora is the favorite here 70 to 30.
G2 vs Virtus.pro: Last Dance for m0NESY?
Even though people talk about the Russian sniper’s departure as if it’s already happened, his play at PGL Bucharest doesn’t hint at any emotional problems. Ilya, as usual, is a pronounced leader, and in the quarterfinal, his impact will only increase. Also, Ilya’s departure might evoke emotions like “When else, if not now?” or “Will we have a better chance to get a trophy?” Six months ago, a similar story with NiKo’s transfer worked exactly like this, and the guys delivered an excellent end to 2024, taking 2 trophies in the BLAST series.
What about VP? A rather nervous electroNic, who still can’t get the players to follow his calls, and unstable individual play from the entire roster, with the exception of ICY. The team still doesn’t have a single confident map that they can pick against any team, and at the moment, the team is not ready to move beyond the top 8. 80 to 20 in favor of the Samurai.
Final Standings Prediction
Paradoxically, the upper bracket is more competitive, but the champion is most likely hiding in the lower bracket, where the choice is between Aurora and G2. Which fairy tale do you believe in more? The Turks’ first trophy in a new organization or a beautiful ending to the relationship between G2 and m0NESY? Trust your intuition, but for us, the chances of winning PGL Bucharest 2025 look like this:
- Aurora: 30%
- G2 Esports: 25%
- 3DMAX: 15%
- FaZe: 12%
- Team Falcons: 7%
- GamerLegion: 6%
- Complexity: 3%
- Virtus.pro: 2%
