Predictions for BLAST.tv Austin Major Playoffs. Pick’em Challenge That Can No Longer Be Completed? Can Vitality Solidify Their Era?
Here we are approaching the final stretch of the third CS2 Major. The event in Austin brought many surprises, but the playoff participants turned out to be extremely predictable. In the last Pick’em Challenge, we guessed 7 out of 8 playoff participants, and predicting paiN’s advancement was really difficult, and Aurora still seems like a stronger team to us. Most importantly – we successfully predicted the end of Vitality’s win streak and VP’s failure despite their confident 3:0 in the second stage. In this material, we propose to move away from the Pick’em Challenge format and won’t turn to industry talents. Only 7 matches remain, and over such a short distance, we can consider each team’s chances individually.
FURIA vs paiN
The Brazilian derby will open the playoffs, even though both teams have representatives from other countries. In our view – this is the most obvious pairing in all parameters: experience, skill, current form, and even potential map pool remains with FURIA. You’ll agree that victories over VP, The MongolZ, and Aurora look much more solid than over Nemiga, 3DMAX, and the same VP, but in a tough fight. The crowd will most likely also be on FURIA’s side, so paiN will have a very difficult time in this quarterfinal. We suggest not dwelling too much on this match and boldly predicting FalleN’s team’s victory with an 80% chance, leaving 20% for Austin’s “magic.”
Team Spirit vs MOUZ
Despite the group stage results – not everything is so clear-cut in this matchup. After all, MOUZ in this roster hasn’t experienced arena game pressure for a long time, and their 0:2 in the group started with BO1s, which we wouldn’t orient ourselves on. Also, the Mice will have enough time to prepare quality against their opponent, and in this aspect of the game, they are really very strong. Does all this mean we believe in MOUZ’s victory? Not quite. We’re trying to convey that you shouldn’t underestimate the level of competitiveness in this confrontation, and we give the prediction: there’s no easy walk for the Dragons here.
Undoubtedly, Spirit are favorites, as donk has come to LAN again and is showing some incredible level of play. Danya can only be stopped by team actions, and their quarterfinal opponent interacts quite well with each other. Therefore, if you’re reasoning from a Pick’em Challenge perspective, we would risk putting MOUZ to advance (no one will see the diamond medal anyway). As for the prediction from the power distribution standpoint, it’s 65 to 35 in favor of Team Spirit.
FaZe vs The MongolZ
Here we’ve approached the most interesting game, whose winner will play in the semifinal against FURIA/paiN. Despite all the audience’s love for the Mongolian team – hardly anyone will support them in Alexander s1mple Kostylev’s fairy tale. The best player of the last decade showed why he still deserves to be called the GOAT, as he saved the sinking ship called FaZe and led it to the playoffs. We shouldn’t diminish the achievements of other players who are also putting in all their efforts in this tournament, as if their future fate for several years depends on it. Actually, why “as if”? karrigan and rain are already very aged players and are unlikely to find a worthy team in case of failure. The situation is similar with ELiGE, who will most likely be forced to return to an NA collective, while frozen hasn’t won so many trophies yet, and his “hunger” is of a different format. Making the playoffs was definitely a key goal for these guys, and it’s not excluded that after passing this checkpoint, we’ll see those same FaZe shining at every Major, only with a buff in the form of s1mple!
Yes, Sasha is still shaking during matches, both literally and figuratively, but he delivers his frags and is currently in the top 5 best players by statistics. Obviously, sitting on NAVI’s bench, he missed playing in front of fans, not matches from a hotel room or ESL Challenger studio, as it was with Falcons. And now he’ll get that same energy from fans in Austin, which will virtually lead his team forward in the match against The MongolZ.
These teams already met in the group stage, and FaZe managed to handle the Mongolians even in more equal conditions, which won’t exist in the arena anymore. Therefore, the same 65 to 35 in favor of FaZe. We make a small note that the stage might give s1mple more excitement than confidence, which could make the chance gap not so big.
Vitality vs NAVI
The last quarterfinal looks the most competitive if you look at the tags, but in reality, everything is completely different. As we predicted earlier – the interrupted win streak removed unnecessary responsibility, lifted the burden from their shoulders, and now their thoughts are only about the trophy they desperately need. They understand that solidifying their own era will only be possible with a Major victory, and this motivation makes them the main favorites. NAVI has absolutely nothing to say as a confident own choice, and they’ll have to play either Nuke or Anubis, which they haven’t practiced in official matches for a very long time.
B1ad3 himself doesn’t hide that the team is on the verge of changes, and this factor cannot remain without effect on the team. NAVI experienced problems against teams like G2 and 3DMAX in the group stage, and their playoff advancement is already a good result. It’s clear that the best coach of 2024 is actively trying to come up with something and somehow surprise, but the “unexpected” Train pick against Spirit, which ended 3:13, looks more like agony than a “secret weapon.”
We’re confident in Vitality’s victory with an 80% chance, and this is also a confident pick in the Pick’em Challenge.
Victory Chances and Pick'em Challenge
As we already said – Pick’em Challenge and real predictions differ slightly, as with pick’ems you can account for unexpected outcomes without justifying reasons, “as it feels,” but predictions must be supported by something. Therefore, we give you two different scenarios.
Predictions for victory at BLAST.tv Austin Major:
- Vitality — 43.71%
- Spirit — 22.18%
- FaZe Clan — 12.16%
- The MongolZ — 7.39%
- MOUZ — 6.82%
- FURIA — 2.96%
- Natus Vincere — 3.42%
- paiN — 1.36%
Pick’em Challenge:
- Quarterfinals: FURIA, MOUZ, FaZe, Vitality
- Semifinals: FaZe, Vitality
- Winner: Vitality
As you can notice in the pick’ems, we left chances for “magic” manifestation in the form of MOUZ’s victory over Team Spirit, as this would be a truly sensational event. As an alternative – you can consider FaZe’s defeat by The MongolZ, but if not for their group stage meeting, we would believe in this outcome much more.
As for the champion, by all laws of logic, it should be Vitality, and we’ve already explained why. Of course, their path will be quite difficult – after all, the lower bracket with MOUZ, Spirit, NAVI looks much stronger, but Vitality has been head and shoulders above their opponents throughout 2025. Believing in FaZe’s victory over Vitality in the grand final is also difficult for a number of objective reasons, and the fairy tale of s1mple’s return would be too beautiful to be true. Vitality’s only vulnerable spot is BO3 in all meetings, but Vitality has already proven that at the right moment, this collective is capable of switching on and delivering the necessary maximum.
