IEM Dallas 2025 Playoff Predictions: Who Will Break Vitality’s Winning Streak or Will the “Invincibles” Lift the Trophy Again?
The IEM Dallas 2025 playoffs will take place from May 23-25, becoming the last tournament before the Major in the neighboring city of Austin. This event has attracted enormous attention, as it’s here that we saw s1mple’s return, and already in the group stage we could have witnessed Vitality’s first defeat since January 2025. Alexander Kostylev with FaZe has already been eliminated, while apEX and company are just two matches away from another trophy and maintaining their “invincible” status. Will anyone be able to stop them? Let’s break it down in this article!
Falcons vs GamerLegion: A Filler Quarterfinal
GamerLegion continues to surprise and inspire admiration. Another playoff appearance for the modest team that repeatedly proves that with hard work and the right approach, results can be achieved. Head coach ash has built a fantastic structure where acoR was seamlessly integrated, replacing the young Hungarian sniper sl3nd for this event. On their path to the quarterfinals, the guys defeated 3DMAX, FURIA, G2, and even gave Vitality a bit of trouble. All their winning matches were extremely close, and the guys could have lost literally every matchup. Therefore, despite their undeniably great result, among the remaining 6 teams, they are objectively the weakest.
What can they put up against Falcons, especially on an arena that will undoubtedly cheer for their defending champions in NiKo and m0NESY? Last year, as part of G2, they created real magic, lifting the IEM Dallas trophy together with Stewie2K as a stand-in. For Kovač and Osipov, that 2024 event was truly transformative, when after an unsuccessful first half of the season, G2 made a couple of changes and looked like a completely different team. Could history repeat itself and American soil gift them some magic again? Actually, against GL this won’t even be necessary – it’s enough to remember their last meeting in the IEM Melbourne quarterfinals, where Falcons simply destroyed the young guys. Now they’ve arrived with a substitute, while the Hawks have gained even more synergy and confidence that they are a top collective.
An obvious Falcons victory with 90% probability, but what happens in the semifinals we’ll figure out a bit later!
The MongolZ vs Aurora: PGL Astana 2025 Rematch
Honestly, it’s hard to write something new about this matchup. As we’ve said many times before, these are two extremely similar teams that on a good day can beat anyone, even Vitality! In the group stage, the Mongols created a real spectacle and made the entire community watch their battle with Vitality with racing hearts. And this wasn’t a case where the champions approached the game carelessly, not at all! The MongolZ imposed their game on apEX, weren’t afraid, and looked so great that at some point no one even doubted they would win!
So does Aurora have no chance, since the Turks climbed to the playoffs through the lower bracket? Of course not, because these are Mongols and Turks on stage, where it’s absolutely unclear how the game will go. Undoubtedly, after such a performance in the match against Vitality, The MongolZ look like favorites, and it’s simply impossible to ignore that result. But we’ll do exactly that and make a symbolic prediction of 55-45 in favor of The MongolZ.
How Are the Other Teams Doing?
Vitality
An unexpected conclusion about Vitality – they’re struggling! There’s a feeling that the “invincible” status is putting some pressure on the guys, and each victory is getting harder for them. Moreover, it feels like it’s not that Vitality started playing worse, but that each subsequent opponent prepares for them so intensely that the guys have to show all their class! They gave away 9 and 10 rounds to GL with a substitute on two maps, and The MongolZ completely tore them apart on Nuke and forced them to come back on Mirage, where everything was very close.
Now, their potential semifinal opponent should be Falcons, who got beaten by MOUZ in the group, and after such defeats NiKo and m0NESY turn on 110%, as their ego cannot accept such losses. The last two meetings between Falcons and Vitality were very tense, and it seems Vitality should move over a bit so as not to be bored alone on the Counter-Strike Olympus.
This defeat would only benefit the guys and removes unnecessary burden before the Major, which will be a very important tournament for them. After all, it’s impossible to claim your era without a Major victory, and Vitality obviously want to cement their dominance, as Astralis, NAVI, and FaZe did. Remember Liquid 2019? The guys took the Grand Slam, Cologne, and until recently held the second record for consecutive matches won. But few talk about that team in the context of an era, and the absence of victory at the main tournament is one of the reasons. Undoubtedly, at IEM Dallas 2025 Vitality are still favorites, but it feels like their defeat is closer than ever.
MOUZ
The Mice really surprised, especially the individual form of sniper torzsi, who simply tears apart every map and makes a substantial difference. The team has already shown how they close games in 30 minutes and how they pull off not-so-obvious comebacks. It’s cool to watch such Mice, and it seems they’ve definitely secured themselves a spot in the grand final. On stage they’re not as nervous anymore, though potential opponents like Aurora or The MongolZ have also improved in this aspect of the game. Of course, it’s better to first watch the quarterfinals and then draw conclusions about the semifinal results, but if making a choice now, MOUZ are favorites and even trophy contenders.
Who Will Win the Trophy? Our Prediction!
For the first time in a long while in predictions involving Vitality, we won’t look at dry odds and won’t bet on their victory. There’s a complete feeling that Falcons or MOUZ are capable of inflicting that defeat on ZywOo and company, which, as we already said, would benefit them. We think we’ll see a full BO5 grand final and witness Falcons lifting the trophy.
We’ve already presented the arguments above, but for the most part it’s naive faith in Dallas magic for NiKo and m0NESY. Their play in recent finals only strengthens belief in this arena factor, but undoubtedly the path to this trophy will be the hardest possible (not counting GL in the quarterfinals).
Our Prediction for Final Placement:
- 1 – Falcons
- 2 – MOUZ
- 3-4 –Vitality
- 3-4 –The MonzolZ
- 5-6 – Aurora
- 5-6 – GamerLegion
Victory Chances at IEM Dallas 2025
Undoubtedly, from a probability standpoint, the placement distribution looks somewhat different from our feelings. Primarily, this is related to teams starting the playoffs from different stages, meaning mathematically the victory chances for Vitality and MOUZ are automatically higher. Current team form will certainly affect some percentage points, but “on paper” this will result in an extra 2-3%. Therefore, if you like operating with numbers, they look like this:
- Vitality: 45.88%
- MOUZ: 29.22%
- Falcons: 21.71%
- The MongolZ: 6.25%
- Aurora: 5.00%
- GamerLegion: 1.11%
