IEM Cologne 2025 Group Stage Predictions. Who Will Make the Playoffs? Team Tier List for IEM Cologne 2025
The Cathedral of Counter-Strike will once again host one of the most prestigious and iconic tournaments in the game’s history. Cologne is an extremely significant event for every esports athlete, which often leads to many upsets. For example, for the legendary Astralis, this became the only trophy they couldn’t win during their extended era. IEM Cologne 2025 has attracted a lot of attention even before the first matches began, as everyone is interested in seeing the changed rosters after the summer break.
In this article, we’ll divide the teams into specific categories, taking into account roster shuffles, the latest update, and the results we’ve managed to see in the Play-In stage. At the end, we’ll definitely identify the 6 teams that will play at the Lanxess Arena, but making predictions for the first tournament after a major break is always very difficult.
What's Happening in the Play-In Stage?
Let’s recall that IEM Cologne is being played on a new patch, and we’ve already seen a couple of matches on Overpass with additional rewards at the end of rounds for CT. Honestly, this hasn’t really changed the meta much, only allowing CTs to make one more buy during weak economy situations. As expected, Brazilian teams suffered greatly, as they loved playing on Anubis, while old-school teams like VP, Astralis, and FaZe aren’t getting rid of it and are ready to play.
Who Will Definitely Advance to the Next Stage?
- Vitality & MOUZ
Hardly anyone will have doubts about the condition of these collectives. First and foremost, they’re in different groups, and MOUZ’s group looks much easier than Vitality’s, who ended up with The MongolZ and Falcons. Nevertheless, if we were asked “who will take first place in the groups?” – they would be clear favorites for us to directly qualify for the semifinals.
The teams made no changes, which definitely allowed them to achieve the perfect balance between rest and getting in shape during the break. From last season, it’s clear they’re moving in the right direction, and achieving satisfactory results in groups is possible thanks to old developments. Last season’s versions would have made the playoffs with their eyes closed, so if they stumble – it would become the main sensation that could only be attributed to “Cologne magic.” Logic would leave the chat.
High Chances for Playoffs
- The MongolZ & Falcons
Unfortunately, both teams ended up in the same group as Vitality, and for this reason, we didn’t classify their chances as close to 100%. According to the bracket, they might face each other or Vitality, which greatly complicates the road to the Lanxess Arena.
Despite the fact that unlike Falcons, the Mongolians made no roster changes, we consider their chances of advancing to be fairly equal. Moreover, Falcons seem to us to be even slight favorites, as they failed the last tournament, and players of this level cannot afford to stumble twice. Fresh blood in the form of kyousuke should have only added motivation for work during the off-season.
The MongolZ stopped one step away from victory at the Major and really want to touch the trophy, as they’ve been circling around it for too long. They also have something to prove and obviously have all the resources for it. The only thing that concerns us is that they removed Anubis, which they were never afraid to play against any teams. The Mongolians often won their matches because they didn’t have a permanent permaban and could remove their opponent’s strong map. With Overpass returning, they won’t have such an opportunity anymore, so we’ll see how much of a problem this becomes for the Mongolians.
Could Fail with New Rosters
- Spirit & NAVI
Both teams made targeted changes, but unlike Falcons, they didn’t remove an “anchor” that was dragging them down, but rather an important system-forming player. Magixx and jL were responsible for morale and were ready to clutch at the right moment, and handling such an important mental role seems almost impossible for newcomers.
In Spirit, anyone except perhaps Zontix could go on tilt, while in NAVI, b1t remains the only such player. Both teams made changes because their clubs’ philosophy is tied to long-term work, so we wouldn’t expect results from them at the first tournament after reshuffles.
Of course, the Dragons have donk, who is quite capable of carrying his team to the playoffs single-handedly. Plus, the last place at the previous IEM Cologne is clearly remembered, and they won’t want to repeat such a result, but objectively, desire alone might not be enough.
Dark Horses
- FaZe, GamerLegion & Astralis
We’ve placed collectives in this category that performed well in the first stage and, in our opinion, are ready to give battle to teams with direct invites to the group stage.
First and foremost, FaZe should be noted, namely broky, who came out of vacation in simply magnificent form. He not only changed his hairstyle and looked younger visually but also started resembling his 2022 version. Yes, you could say there wasn’t such competition in Play-In as there will be in groups, but you can’t deny that the Latvian is close to his usual form. And considering the level of players in FaZe – they can beat anyone.
GamerLegion last season became an example of a team capable of showing results without big investments. Taking an unknown sniper – they remain true to themselves. Even though he didn’t show anything outstanding, primarily – he didn’t break anything. GL already had everything very decent, and they just lacked a stable sniper. The structure and teamplay now resemble the dawn of MOUZ when they just started gaining momentum with their current roster. Therefore, these guys can bite back and jump into the playoffs.
As for Astralis, HooXi managed to prove that the once Danish stars are not yet written-off material and they just lacked certain chemistry. Now it’s quite clear what this team wants to play and how they can defeat opponents. You can see developments, prepared setups, and internally they look ready to contend for playoffs.
Better Not to Choose as Favorites
- Aurora & G2
The Turkish collective will fly to Cologne without their main star – XANTARES, and this argument alone should be enough not to make any bets on them. Young xfl0ud will undoubtedly want to use his chance and show his maximum, but XANTARES is too important a player for Aurora, so we would just observe them without special expectations.
The same can be said about G2, who not only overhauled half their roster but also put the elder Kovač in the captain’s role. The new coaching staff still needs to do colossal work, so it’s very difficult now to determine what the Samurais represent. Even on paper, it’s hard to call this roster something incredible, let alone in practice.
Potential Upsets
We know that Cologne loves to surprise. Over the past few years, teams like Movistar Riders, SAW, and others have managed to play in the semifinals. It’s not excluded that IEM Cologne will give us something similar and Vitality will be eliminated by conditional NIP or HEROIC. We suggest enjoying beautiful CS in groups and postponing all expectations until matches at the arena, where there will be much more information about the collectives.
Who Will Make the IEM Cologne 2025 Playoffs? Team Tier List
As you’ve already understood, making an iron-clad prediction is not at all simple, as too many factors make us doubt our choice – from current form to meta changes. Therefore, we suggest making two predictions – rational and experimental. You can make your own prediction based on the tier list that resulted from our reasoning.
- Rational: Vitality, MOUZ, Falcons, The MongolZ, Spirit, FaZe
- Experimental: Vitality, MOUZ, Falcons, The MongolZ, GamerLegion, Astralis
