Prediction for BLAST Rivals Season 2. Are There Clear Favorites in Hong Kong?
The world’s best teams aren’t leaving the Chinese region after IEM Chengdu 2025 and have moved to Hong Kong for the BLAST Rivals Season 2 finals. By current standards, the tournament’s $350,000 prize pool might seem small, but considering only 8 teams are participating and the event runs for 5 days – it’s a solid amount. The tournament is also interesting due to its participant lineup, as we saw everyone except Passion UA (ex-Complexity) literally a week ago in Chengdu. Let’s discuss each team’s form and try to determine their chances of victory.
TYLOO. 4% Chance of Victory
The Chinese squad couldn’t give fans at least one victory at IEM Chengdu, but it’s good that they managed to play at least one match in the arena on home turf and in front of a home crowd. Notably, their last match was a loss to paiN, whom the tournament bracket will likely match them against again.
As for the main team of the Chinese region, it feels like the guys primarily struggled individually. Their first tier-1 appearances this year (for example, at ESL Pro League S20) stood out precisely for their firepower. The guys ran around the server taking opponents’ heads off, and now they’re lacking exactly that kind of performance. We want to see Jee with the AWP and fire in his eyes again, but lately he’s lost consistency, which is why we see his cheerful and smiling interviews less and less often.
paiN. 5% Chance of Victory
This team is an absolute mystery, and if anyone is destined to be that “surprise,” it’s the Brazilian squad. First, they’ve always been known for unexpected runs to final stages (just look at their Major semifinal where they made it to Stage 3 in Budapest). Second, their debut match will be their derby against FURIA, which always turns out very bright and unpredictable. In matches against FalleN, KSCERATO, and yuurih, every Brazilian’s animal instinct kicks in, wanting to show they’re no worse.
Anyone can turn up because the team has good balance, where on average everyone plays with a positive KD and can deliver a “game of their life” in a particular match. At IEM Chengdu 2025, they could have even sent The MongolZ home, who by the way ended up in the tournament’s top-6. Therefore, at BLAST Rivals they’re quite capable of surprising and reaching the playoffs, especially since they only need to secure a single victory to do so.
Passion UA. 7% Chance of Victory
It’s been a long time since we’ve seen the former Complexity stack at tier-1 events, and now they have a decent opportunity to remind everyone of themselves. Yes, they managed to put up a fight against the Mongols and have already guaranteed themselves a quarterfinal spot, but the other opponents at this event are far more formidable than The MongolZ, and believing in Passion UA’s championship is unrealistic.
Recently, the guys haven’t had any matches against tier-1 opponents, however, before this tournament, their last strong opponent was Team Spirit. Back then, Passion UA managed to take a map off the Dragons, but subsequently lost without a chance on the two remaining ones. It’s worth noting that donk and company were in better form at that time, so we shouldn’t completely write off this team at this event. They really do have experience, and being the underdog, it’s always satisfying to bite the favorites, but still, let’s be realistic.
The MongolZ. 9% Chance of Victory
After their triumph over Spirit, much more was expected from the Mongols in the quarterfinal against FURIA. We’re inclined to think that The MongolZ simply exhaled too hard after their initial successes with controlez. They realized “life goes on” and after losing Senzu, they definitely won’t sink to the bottom from which it would be hard to climb out. “We’ll make it to the New Year,” and then maybe the main star of the lineup will return and we’ll rebuild everything from scratch.
It feels like this is exactly the mindset the Mongolian squad has right now, and of course, this is quite dangerous. A close match against Passion UA, who have nothing to lose and need to fight for every VRS point, seems quite logical. The Mongols are obviously finishing out this season and right now their thoughts are concentrated on not failing. Perhaps we’re mistaken, but we’ll still form our opinion based on these thoughts. The newcomer is 28 years old and he adequately understands that no one will sign him for the long term – his role is to help here and now. The team also understands that this lineup is temporary, so if changes are inevitable, you mechanically start thinking about the future rather than fully concentrating on upcoming matches.
Spirit. 13% Chance of Victory
We’ve already said everything about the Dragons in our detailed analysis of their current situation, and this tournament will show whether Spirit managed to find the right momentum. Making serious progress in such a short time is of course difficult, but we shouldn’t forget that Spirit is a strong organization that reacts instantly to failures. No one doubts the players’ skill either – this five can win any match and any tournament. Of course, predictions should be built on available information, not “potential,” so at this stage – the Dragons aren’t among the favorites.
It’s possible that Spirit’s situation isn’t actually that bad, or conversely, even worse than we expected. The guys definitely must make it to the playoffs, but it feels like this roster isn’t ready to lift trophies yet. This is even for the better, because there’s a probability that the first victories with zweih clouded their vision, didn’t allow them to objectively assess the situation, and only tN1R’s arrival exposed all the problems.
Falcons. 16% Chance of Victory
Every time something needs to be written about Falcons, only their brightest games come to mind, where each player turns on at least 50% of their potential and that’s enough for victory. IEM Chengdu tries to deceive again, as the Falcons finished it with a victory over MOUZ, where on their own maps, they had no problems at all. FURIA completely shut down Vitality 3:0, so the semifinal loss no longer looks catastrophic either.
But no, no, and once again no. Until Falcons lift a trophy – there will be no clear confidence in them. Yes, the Inferno problem isn’t as fatal anymore (if you don’t pick attack on the opponent’s pick), but it’s still an extremely vulnerable spot for the team. The two best teams in the world right now – FURIA and Vitality – don’t play their 100% Ancient, which forces Falcons to accept battle on less comfortable maps for themselves. Yes, on skill and shooting you can win any game, but the main competitors are now making it so that Falcons don’t even find open duels against them.
FURIA. 21% Chance of Victory
It’s not for nothing that we’ve admired this squad for a long time, now the guys have shut the mouths of many skeptics. But now comes a new period when they need to not let the haters open them again, and it must be admitted that it’s much harder than the path to the first tier-1 trophy. The guys’ main opponent now is themselves. Will FURIA be able to play their rounds with a cool head again, will excess overconfidence appear in individual actions? Obviously, the guys’ main strength is team play, where everyone performs their role and ensures the operation of a single mechanism. And if someone can’t handle the pressure – it will be bad.
Honestly, the grand final against Vitality is a real miracle. Painstaking, hard-won, most likely absolutely deserved, but still a miracle. The risk with the Ancient pick, Vitality’s unclear choice in the form of Inferno, and then their favorite Overpass. Of course, they’re among the favorites, but somehow it seems that maintaining their championship form will be harder for them than for their opponents to work on their mistakes.
Vitality. 24% Chance of Victory
Monstrous mistakes in map selection in the grand final deprived apEX’s team of their third Grand Slam victory. Perhaps this fact made them fuss and make the wrong decision, but at BLAST Rivals S2, Vitality must defend the championship of the first season. The guys just need to settle down a bit and establish communication. In such a short break, form was unlikely to be lost, and most likely for Vitality, IEM Chengdu was a “warm-up” event.
Right now on the pro scene there are no teams in perfect form, so we have to put the squad as favorites who, it feels, need less time to fix shortcomings than the others.
Author: Alex
Alex is an author and esports observer with more than seven years of experience. He specializes in analyzing new releases in the world of computer games, gaming services, and in-game economies. Alex shares practical experience and an expert perspective on the development of gaming, helping readers understand complex mechanics and stay up to date with the latest news.
