Pick’Em Challenge for the Elimination Stage: A Fight for the Diamond Coin and Predictions for the Shanghai Major Playoffs
The first stage of the Major has concluded, bringing a slew of surprises. Predicting the results of the Opening Stage turned out to be quite challenging, and the revamped Pick’Em system has had an unprecedented impact. For our predictions for the Legends Stage, we’ve decided to change tactics, focusing solely on the known initial matchups instead of speculating on “probable” outcomes. It’s also worth considering that teams are not playing in the comfort of practice rooms but in front of a live audience in a small arena. This setup could provide a slight advantage to teams coming from the previous stage, but they will face much stronger and more experienced opponents this time.
The eight teams advancing directly to this stage had ample time to prepare and adapt, so labeling them as “unwarmed up” or “getting into the groove” is no longer accurate. Let’s dive into the specifics and break down our picks for the Elimination Stage favorites.
3:0: The Most Critical and Challenging Choice
Experience has shown that picking this category correctly is crucial, as missing out here likely costs not just 2 points but 4. Therefore, no more “safe” picks — this prediction requires at least some basic logical reasoning. Based on the initial matches, we believe MOUZ and Vitality have the easiest first-stage opponents: paiN and GamerLegion.
MOUZ traditionally excel in group stages, progressing without significant difficulties. They boast one of the broadest map pools in the pro scene, enabling them to steer opponents onto less favorable maps. Of course, randomness in BO1 matches is always a factor, but the performance of paiN hasn’t been convincing enough to make us worry about MOUZ. paiN’s Opening Stage opponents were relatively weak, and of the four teams they faced, only GamerLegion advanced to the Major’s top 16.
While we don’t have immense faith in Vitality, their matchup against GamerLegion is the most one-sided among the initial pairs. apEX’s squad will undoubtedly ban GamerLegion’s best maps — Vertigo and Ancient — as Vitality doesn’t play them. This will eliminate any temptation to “show off” by picking GamerLegion’s signature maps, which have carried them to this stage. The skill disparity between the players is immense, and ZywOo should be able to carry his team comfortably, especially on maps he excels at.
3:1 and 3:2: Why NAVI and G2 Are Here
As mentioned earlier, we focused primarily on the opening matches, where NAVI and G2 face some of the toughest opponents, capable of putting up serious resistance. Liquid and The Mongolz are yet to lose a single match at the Major, making it risky to label them as clear underdogs even against the world’s #1 and #2 teams.
No one doubts that G2 can make it past the group stage and delight fans with their playoff performance. However, we’ve opted to play it safe, placing them in the 3:1 and 3:2 categories. While G2 had a strong RMR showing, not all of their stars have reached peak form. Perhaps this has changed over the past few days, and m0NESY is now back in top condition, but we’ve based our predictions on their form from a couple of weeks ago. There’s also the ongoing chatter about this roster being a “Last Dance,” with financial incentives from stickers already secured. The hope now lies solely in the competitive ambitions of each player, which undoubtedly remain strong throughout the lineup.
The Mongolz made a confident entry into the top 16, earning their status as playoff contenders. The entire roster seems to be peaking, and it’s uncertain how long they can maintain their position at the pinnacle of global CS. The Mongolz are clearly seizing their opportunities and have solidified themselves as dark horses in any event. Their matchup against G2 is roughly 40-60 in G2’s favor, but for this roster, even this 40% against the Samurai turns into 60% against most other teams.
NAVI are among the top favorites for the entire Major, and winning in Shanghai would be a fitting conclusion to their dominance throughout 2024. However, defending a title is always a daunting task, and it seems B1ad3’s squad might face this curse on Chinese soil. In the group stage, they should handle any challenges with two chances to correct mistakes, but the playoffs could hold anything. Speculating on the potential champion feels premature, so let’s move on.
Shifting from safer picks to riskier ones, we’ve placed our bets on Furia, inspired by the “magic of Chinese-character stickers.” FalleN’s roster has shown decent form, and with three Brazilian teams in the mix, at least one seems likely to make the top 8. We believe Furia has the best chance, so we’re placing them in the 3:1 and 3:2 categories.
Furia starts their journey against Team Spirit, who barely made it to the Major and were one step away from elimination at the RMR. They managed to regroup and secured a Legends spot thanks to the new rules. While donk and sh1ro have the skill to carry their team to the playoffs, much will depend on these two players alone.
The last slot in this category goes to Team Liquid, who have looked solid in their initial Major matches. While the quality of their opponents hasn’t been entirely convincing, they’ve found their rhythm and should find it slightly easier moving forward.
0:3: The Realm of Randomness
Predicting the weakest teams in the previous stage was challenging (thanks, Rare Atom), and identifying the weakest among this lineup seems nearly impossible. While randomness reigns supreme, we’re not picking FaZe Clan as the main underdogs, but we’re also skeptical about their chances to progress. The roster seems tired of each other, and their RMR performance did little to change that perception. Long tournaments aren’t their strong suit, and having been in China for over three weeks, the players may be mentally drained.
For the weakest teams, we’ve picked Wildcard and BIG. Wildcard faces FaZe in their first game, and their fairy tale seems destined to end here. Meanwhile, BIG, despite their potential to beat Heroic in the opening match, appear weaker than the remaining teams. Their reshuffle with rigon has shown promise recently, but their absence from Tier-1 events prior to this makes their top-16 placement feel like an overachievement.
Final Predictions
Here’s how the top 8 for the Perfect World Shanghai Major 2024 will look:
- 3:0: MOUZ, Vitality
- 3:1, 3:2: NAVI, G2, Team Spirit, Furia, The Mongolz, Team Liquid
- 0:3: Wildcard, BIG
