IEM Katowice 2025 Playoff Preview: Can Team Spirit Defend Their Championship Title?
From February 7-9, the legendary Spodek Arena will host the six best teams from the group stage, and only one of them will lift the trophy. Two teams have already secured their spots in the semifinals, while the others will begin their journey to the trophy from the quarterfinals. In this article, we’ll analyze each team’s form based on their performance in previous stages and predict their chances of winning the trophy.
Virtus.pro. Chance to win: 5%
VP’s new roster with electroNic as captain started their Katowice campaign with a completely lackluster loss against paiN, which didn’t come as a major surprise to many. However, the Bears then managed to show more than convincing gameplay and made it to the main stage. This roster has started playing more aggressively, and at first glance, this helps players fully unlock their potential rather than being constrained by previous strategies.
In the group stage, they had to face G2 and Eternal Fire, where they managed to secure victories and guarantee themselves second place in the group. Young players FL4MUS and ICY note that under Denis Sharipov’s leadership, they feel very comfortable playing and see him as both a wise mentor and an excellent player who reads the game well. The team atmosphere has indeed significantly improved, and even the loss against Vitality didn’t significantly mar the overall impression of this roster. However, when considering them as potential champions, it’s difficult to find objective arguments in VP’s favor. Firstly, they’re matched against Team Spirit, and secondly, due to visa issues, the team’s main emotional driver, FLAMUS, will have to miss the playoff stage. Rumors suggest mir will replace him, but we know that playing with a substitute is always much harder, not to mention the uncertainty about Nikolai’s game form.
In their match against Team Spirit, they have a chance to pick Train as their map and try to capitalize on the lack of practice on this map. However, believing in their victory in a full BO3 is extremely difficult.
The MongolZ. Chance to win: 11%
Of all the top teams, the Mongols returned from vacation the latest due to Senzu’s broken arm. It’s worth noting that he arrived at the tournament in a cast, which certainly can’t help but affect his individual form. Despite confidently qualifying from the group in second place, their path to the playoffs seems the easiest of all six teams that made it to Spodek Arena. Victories over Team Liquid and GamerLegion don’t look particularly outstanding, especially since they couldn’t pass the real test against NAVI.
The Mongols have always surprised with their shooting prowess and won most matches because of it, but it’s unlikely they’ve managed to reach their proper competitive form in just three games. Their opponents have been playing competitive CS since mid-January and managed to attend a LAN in Copenhagen, while The MongolZ are just getting into the groove of 2025. On paper, their quarterfinal matchup against Eternal Fire could be considered equal, but the Turks currently look much more interesting and stronger.
Eternal Fire. Chance to win: 15%
Another playoff appearance for the Turkish team, which absolutely deserves the highest praise for their work. The targeted replacement of jottAAA with Calyx is already proving its worth and seems to have given a boost to absolutely every player on the team. After reaching the finals of BLAST Bounty Season 1, everyone expected them to easily defeat VP, but the Turks lost a couple of crucial rounds and ended up in the lower bracket. However, this gave them a chance to test their strength against 3DMAX and FaZe Clan, victories over whom earned them a ticket to Spodek Arena.
The team’s main stars, XANTARES and woxic, seem to have returned to their prime, and currently, few on the pro scene would want to engage in open firefights with them. The team also has an absolute trump card in Anubis, where they are the best team in the world. Eternal Fire doesn’t have a permanent ban and can compete on all 7 maps, so even their progression to the grand final wouldn’t be surprising. Considering all these positives, one might want to increase their chances of winning, but they start from the quarterfinals, which makes their path to the championship more difficult, and the remaining opponents are no less worthy contenders for the trophy.
Team Spirit. Chance to win: 19%
The last quarterfinalist has better chances of winning the tournament than the other participants at this stage. The world’s best team dropped to the lower bracket after losing to NAVI and even unexpectedly experienced some problems in the decisive match against GamerLegion. The team’s players seem somewhat exhausted and tired from the dense tournament schedule, so their playoff results depend on whether they can rest during the couple of days break.
Obviously, you can never write off the world’s best team and the current champions of the last two major events. Danya “donk” can always carry a game single-handedly, so the Dragons remain real contenders for the championship. We had to remove a few percentage points due to their sudden slip-up against Virtus.pro, and a potential matchup with NAVI seems slightly unfavorable (about 55-45 against Team Spirit).
NAVI. Chance to win: 22%
Blad3’s squad took first place in their group and secured a spot in the semifinals, which obviously increases their chances of winning, but it’s difficult to call them the main contenders for the title due to a possible rematch against Team Spirit.
NAVI looks good, but their match against Spirit in the group stage was a spectacle of errors from both sides. It’s impossible to say that either team looked significantly stronger; luck was simply on the side of CS2’s first Major winners in that match. Individually, jL stood out strongly, single-handedly winning many rounds for his teammates and carrying them to the semifinals. Playing on stage is no longer an advantage or weakness for any team, but the extra day of rest could help significantly, which is why their chances in the lower bracket are higher than the others.
Vitality. Chance to win: 28%
Based on the playoff bracket layout and the team’s performance in the group stage, Vitality appears to be the main favorite in the tournament. The team’s newcomer, ropz, already looks more than organic in his new jersey and fits perfectly into the team’s chaotic style. Playing on intuition and reading opponents, gathering information and putting all the cards in their team’s hands – this is what apEX has been missing for a long time. ZywOo also looks inspired for new victories and is even trying to find something new, or rather return to forgotten old ways. The Frenchman has brought back the unusual viewmodel from the start of his career and seems hungry for wins again, like several years ago.
Their semifinal opponents are still lower in status, and their previous loss to Eternal Fire at BLAST Bounty Season 1 hasn’t changed this fact. Anything can happen in a BO5 grand final, but a 100% win rate on 4 maps over the last 3 months inspires faith in this team.
Final Distribution of Chances to Win IEM Katowice 2025
- Vitality – 28%
- NAVI – 22%
- Team Spirit – 19%
- Eternal Fire – 15%
- The MongolZ – 11%
- Virtus.pro – 5%
