IEM Melbourne 2025 Playoff Predictions! Who Will Get $100,000 for Eliminating Vitality, or Are the Golden Ingots of Grand Slam 5 Already in apEX and Company’s Pocket?
Another tier-1 event in 2025 is nearing its conclusion, which means it’s time to make predictions for the winner. Unlike the last tournament in Bucharest, which was full of surprises, Melbourne has been quite predictable even with FaZe and NAVI being eliminated in the group stage. There’s not much point in discussing the reasons for their failure – the teams are simply out of form, so it’s hard to call this result sensational. In our view, everything in Australia won’t be upside down as is commonly portrayed, but rather quite familiar – so without further suspense, let’s move on to the predictions.
Falcons vs GamerLegion. A Masterclass in Arena Performance.
Ironically, just a couple of weeks ago these teams met in the Bucharest playoffs, and back then we said that the young guys from GamerLegion wouldn’t be able to handle the playoff pressure. That’s exactly what happened, but now the situation is even better for Falcons – the match will take place in front of a noisy Australian crowd, and Ilya “m0NESY” Osipov will have the sniper rifle in his hands. It seems like this is already enough to not even start this match and just let the Bucharest champions advance to the semifinals, but let’s dig a bit deeper.
What advantages does GL have? They have a good structure, well-prepared defaults, and REZ, who feeds off the energy of his young teammates and racks up around 30 frags on almost every map. From a map pool perspective – they don’t play Dust 2, which is one of Falcons’ best maps, and statistically, they feel more confident on Inferno and Train. Obviously, one of these maps will be chosen as GamerLegion’s pick, while Falcons will choose Nuke or Mirage, and Ancient as a decider would suit both teams. In our opinion, GL needs to take a risk and try to take Train, where experienced players haven’t played enough matches yet, and m0NESY has practically no experience on this map.
But will all this help? We’ll see tomorrow when NiKo and m0NESY step onto the arena, the crowd goes crazy and gives the team additional confidence, which will already be high against such opponents. Our conclusion – Falcons can only lose to themselves, and GL will find it extremely difficult to focus on their own defaults in the prevailing atmosphere. Therefore, a logical 80 to 20 in favor of Falcons.
Liquid vs The MongolZ. The Most Competitive Playoff Match?
These teams also met two weeks ago and also in an elimination match, but it was in the group stage in the 0-2 bracket. At that time, the Mongols steamrolled Liquid while being in terrible form, but Liquid at that moment had just started getting acquainted with their new captain.
After The MongolZ’s failure at PGL Bucharest 2025, it was clear that the guys were definitely experiencing some problems. It’s quite difficult to continuously reach playoffs at tier-1 events, and such a slip-up was bound to happen sooner or later. In Australia, the guys slightly surprised us – the team captain bLitz moved to the far right position, and now Senzu or 910 sit in the center. Usually, this means that the team has changed their main caller, but we know cases where this didn’t affect anything. There’s no open information yet, but it wouldn’t tell us much anyway, as the team managed to advance to the playoffs by defeating FaZe and Complexity, and did so in their familiar signature style.
As for the Horses (Liquid), as we expected, siuhy gave that very energy that this team desperately lacked. NertZ started smiling again, and ultimate began showing at least some emotions, which certainly reflected in their gameplay. The guys knocked NAVI out of the tournament, showing character and almost completing a comeback from a 1:11 score, which was hard to imagine with Liquid’s previous lineup. They’re not afraid to pick Mirage, where they’ve had 0% wins in the last three months, and don’t give up after another loss on it. Honestly, this new aura should become the main weapon in tomorrow’s quarterfinal.
On paper, the Mongols have a better map pool, where they look more confident on any map (even Anubis isn’t as bad as HLTV statistics suggest). But the team is obviously not at peak form, but in a state of stagnation or even regression, while Liquid is undoubtedly on the rise. The MongolZ also can’t boast about bright performances on the arena, and considering all factors together – the match will be extremely competitive. Although we like to rely not only on numbers, here we’ve already raised Liquid’s chances of winning quite high due to the morale component. And our final calculation is 55 to 45 in favor of The MongolZ.
About the Semifinalists. Spoiler: They're the Main Contenders for the Trophy
Well, it seems we’re in for another classic 2025 grand final: MOUZ vs Vitality. Former Vitality player Spinx has repeatedly emphasized that the team is hungry for revenge and will definitely take the game next time. To understand whether this match will happen, let’s talk about each team separately.
MOUZ
The Mice started the tournament with a lost map to BIG, but who hasn’t stumbled at the start? This isn’t an indicator, even though some don’t exclude this fact from the equation. There’s nothing new to say about this team: still excellent coaching work, and every player on the team can deliver a performance that will create the necessary difference and give confidence to their partners.
Most likely, they’ll face Falcons in the semifinal, but despite the reinforcement in the form of m0NESY and the visible boost in confidence for Falcons, the Mice are unlikely to give way in a potential confrontation. Although the stage factor will also be on Falcons’ side, we don’t see the point in dwelling on this and will move straight to fantasies about a possible grand final against Vitality. Many say that the additional motivation of $100,000 should play in MOUZ’s favor. It’s unclear who in their right mind would use this as a real take when the opposing team has $1,000,000 at stake and entry into an elite, even more exclusive club than Major winners. The Mice will definitely put up a fight, but stopping this machine will be difficult.
Vitality. Give Them This Million, Otherwise They Won't Stop.
One of the last steps towards declaring their own era, which Vitality has already been close to in their time, but always lacked something. Now they need to seize the opportunity when competitors are experiencing a dip in form, or are bogged down in reshuffles, or are skipping tournament after tournament, like Team Spirit. MOUZ is the only team that can stop them, but apEX and company’s motivation is too great for such youngsters to be able to stop their winning streak. Falcons tried to cause problems on one of the maps, but even NiKo and m0NESY couldn’t maintain the advantage and gave Vitality their 19th consecutive victory.
Returning to the results of IEM Melbourne 2025 – there haven’t been cases where a team reached the finish line and didn’t complete the race. So let ESL prepare the gold and let’s close the hype around this saga.
Final Distribution of Chances to Win
- Vitality — 55.50%
- MOUZ — 21.51%
- Falcons — 11.79%
- The MongolZ — 6.14%
- Liquid — 3.18%
- GamerLegion — 1.87%
