PGL Astana 2025 Playoff Forecast: Is it that simple for Team Spirit, and what to expect from the dark horses?
The capital of Kazakhstan is hosting the first tournament in the CIS region in six years, which the community has been waiting for more than half a year since its announcement. Not all top teams arrived in Astana, resulting in a balanced distribution of power with a huge difference in class from the strongest to the weakest team. There are four teams at the tournament that can confidently be classified as tier-1 scene, and they have secured their places in the playoffs (Team Spirit, NAVI, The MongolZ, and Aurora). The remaining 12 teams fought for a spot in the quarterfinals in the Swiss system group stage, and they turned out to be FURIA, NIP, Astralis, and MIBR. In this article, we will focus specifically on the quarterfinal matches and try to determine the future champion.
The MongolZ vs Aurora: Two identical twins
Over the past year, both rosters have gone through extremely similar paths and have managed to establish themselves at the top of the global CS scene. The teams represent their native countries, have very similar results, and face similar problems. There’s not much point in discussing these teams separately in a face-to-face confrontation. The only thing we can rely on in our prediction is current form, and in this regard, The MongolZ look stronger right now, as evidenced by their easy playoff qualification with a 3-0 record compared to Aurora’s 3-2.
Both teams play based on gunplay, love to engage in CS mind games, and both teams will receive their fair share of support in the arena, as the Russian-speaking community has a positive attitude toward these teams. Of course, Aurora has a charismatic owner who signed the biggest streamer EVELONE to attract his audience to support the organization, but we don’t think this will have a significant impact, and The MongolZ won’t feel that the stadium is more against them.
Arena performances are the main kryptonite for both teams, but it seems that the Mongolians have improved in this aspect a bit more than the Turks. Not long ago, they faced Vitality in the semifinals of IEM Melbourne, having previously defeated Liquid in front of a noisy Australian crowd. The last confrontation between these teams was in the quarterfinals of IEM Katowice 2025, where the Mongolians proved stronger. We are inclined to believe that The MongolZ will also win at this tournament with a 60% probability.
NAVI vs Astralis: The HooXi Factor?
Of course, we want to focus more on Astralis, whose owners are comically trying to sell the team after long-term abuse of the legendary tag. But what interests us most is the arrival of HooXi, who left G2 as the scapegoat for all problems, and a year and a half later came as a savior and literally “the last hope” for the Danish organization. No one believed in this substitution, but a confident 3-1 advancement to the playoffs made everyone tone down the hate, and the new captain’s individual form is simply impressive.
The entire team is playing completely differently, and there’s even a sense of structure emerging, which is hard to believe given such a short time. But will the current form be enough to beat NAVI? Unlikely. B1ad3’s team is not in their best individual condition right now, and preparing them for a completely new team will be very difficult. But in any case, their existing strategies should be enough to overcome Astralis.
Of course, the Danes have nothing to lose: they’ve already shown more than expected, and even the strongest teams can’t be blamed for losing to NAVI. The Danes have many advantages in this confrontation, but NAVI are so far ahead that these factors won’t be enough to completely overtake them. 70 to 30 in favor of NAVI.
FURIA vs MIBR: Home field advantage, honeymoon, or top transfers?
There was also a lot of talk about the roster changes in FURIA, and everyone was very curious to see what this Frankenstein would show. FalleN gave the AWP to a young Kazakhstani player with the nickname molodoy, who was joined by YEKINDAR on loan to help him adapt, and they removed two Brazilians – chelo and skullz. On paper, this raised many questions, but in practice, it turned out quite well: FalleN is running around with a rifle and leading the team, molodoy is showing great stats (1.22), and YEKINDAR is excellently handling his roles, something we haven’t seen since his VP days. It’s clear what kind of CS they want to play, and we haven’t seen such a combat-ready and interesting FURIA for a very long time.
MIBR also showed decent gameplay, but we need to understand that at this tournament, they only defeated G2 with a stand-in, their compatriots from paiN, and VP in a close match, and VP is far from their prime. They lost one match precisely to FURIA, and it feels like this team should only improve from match to match.
What will happen in the arena? Well, of course, the hall will be incredibly supportive of molodoy, which is unclear how it will affect the inexperienced sniper – it could either energize him or constrain his actions. But he is surrounded by very experienced teammates who obviously have an advantage over the entire MIBR roster in this aspect. A Brazilian derby is always very hot and fun, but on May 16, FURIA will win with a 65 percent probability.
Team Spirit vs NIP: No surprises
Hardly anyone doubts that the Dragons will secure a ticket to the semifinals in this confrontation. They always find it quite difficult to perform on stage because they usually disappoint the arena’s favorites, but this time the stadium will definitely be pushing the guys forward. The main star of the roster – donk – has long said that he’s waiting for this tournament to feel the support of the audience, and the Barys Arena is already ready to welcome its heroes.
NIP faced Spirit on the first day of play and managed to give the Dragons problems on Train, which turned out to be their main weapon throughout the event. Even if donk and company lose to them on Train this time, they will simply overrun them on all fronts on other maps. Hardly anyone has doubts on this issue, so 95 to 5 – Spirit are the clear favorites.
Who will be the champion?
Based on the bracket that has formed, the lower part seems more predictable. Team Spirit are unlikely to have problems against NIP, FURIA, or MIBR, so reaching the grand final is almost a done deal. The upper part is much more complicated: an unpredictable first quarterfinal, and NAVI are quite a beatable opponent for both Aurora and especially for The MongolZ, who have already defeated them in the group stage. By the way, there’s a feeling that whichever semifinal it turns out to be, the Mongolians and Turks will receive even more support than the Born to Win. If this actually happens, this factor could become a surprise for NAVI, who are used to playing with great arena support.
One way or another, the most “logical” final seems to be NAVI vs Team Spirit, where the Dragons will emerge victorious. Next on the list for the trophy are The MongolZ, but whoever ends up in the final – Spirit is the sole favorite. The team hasn’t won anything for a long time, and this championship is needed as a breath of fresh air, as Vitality and Falcons are actively cutting off their oxygen.
Final distribution of chances to win PGL Astana 2025:
- Team Spirit: 60.61%
- NAVI: 23.26%
- The MongolZ: 15.38%
- Aurora: 5.26%
- FURIA: 3.23%
- Astralis: 2.27%
- MIBR: 1.33%
- NIP: 1.00%
P.S. It will be interesting to see how The MongolZ, Aurora, or FURIA will manage to reach IEM Dallas 2025, which starts approximately 24 hours after the end of PGL Astana 2025, in case they make it to the final.
