PGL Cluj-Napoca 2025 Playoff Predictions: Who’s Closest to the Championship?
The group stage wasn’t without surprises, but most teams made it to the top 8 and quarter-finals quite logically. Virtus.pro was the biggest disappointment, showing rather straightforward CS, and after their small triumph at IEM Katowice 2025, expectations for this team were significantly higher. Let’s remind that from 2025, PGL decided to hold third-place matches, which will become the main feature of the event in Cluj-Napoca and future tournaments from this tournament operator. In this article, we’ll primarily focus on the quarter-finals, but we’ll also try to predict the final standings of teams at the Romanian event.
paiN vs MOUZ: Is Everything So Clear-cut?
Based on tags and player roster, MOUZ are considered favorites in the first quarter-final, but judging by the results at the tournament itself, one wants to give priority to the Brazilians. The only obstacle might be the team’s inexperience in arena matches, but not so long ago, MOUZ themselves suffered from this factor. paiN had perhaps the most difficult path in the Swiss system, as they played against Astralis, Falcons, The MongolZ, and Virtus.pro, where only the Russian team didn’t make it to playoffs. The guys still make many mistakes, but thanks to their character and hot South American temperament, they close many situations in their favor. The team has no obvious anchor, where everyone can deliver a solid performance and help the team when needed.
MOUZ started with confident 2:0s, but as soon as they began facing more serious opponents like FaZe, Falcons, and VP, everything started looking less rosy. Spinx is currently the main protagonist, which is expressed not only in statistics but also in the general feel of the Mice’s game. When the game relies on one player, it’s always dangerous, especially when you’re facing a united collective, which paiN definitely is.
The map pool for both teams is rather narrow but almost identical, so the main headache will start at the map veto stage. Most likely, neither team will risk and prefer to determine the winner on comfortable maps for both teams: Dust2, Inferno, Mirage, and Nuke.
For us, this matchup looks like 60-40 in favor of paiN.
The MongolZ vs Astralis: No Need to Look for Intrigue
The power and terror of the Astralis tag still makes people believe they’re a solid tier-1 team, but these feelings can be compared to the so-called Mandela Effect. We remember Astralis as a championship team, but in fact, they’re not even contending for the world top anymore. The game shown by the Danes is hard to call interesting, both individually and tactically. They managed to beat BIG, MIBR, and SAW, but in matches against strong teams, they can’t show anything worthwhile.
When talking about The MongolZ, it feels like the guys are performing at 70% of their capabilities and only fully engage at critical moments. Nevertheless, they can engage, which is a good sign suggesting that we won’t see any “sleepwalking” in the playoffs. The Mongols shoot excellently, the captain shows fantastic individual form, and it’s time for the players to firmly establish themselves in playoff stages. PGL Cluj-Napoca initially looked like an ideal tournament for this team, which excludes the chance of meeting mastodons like Vitality, NAVI, or Team Spirit.
No matter what map the Danes choose, the Mongols have excellent Inferno and can always bring opponents to a shootout on Mirage. Here we have a confident 80-20 for The MongolZ.
Falcons vs Eternal Fire: The Closest Quarter-final
There’s no doubt that both teams aren’t thrilled about the playoff pairs, making it most difficult to identify a clear favorite here. Despite both teams finishing the group stage with 3:1 statistics, none of the victories were convincing. Therefore, to determine the chances of victory, we’ll turn to conclusions made after the completion of five game days.
Falcons’ problem is quite obvious – the team is still trying to find chemistry and is in the formation stage. The main ace is NiKo, who proved that he’s considered one of the best and most consistent players of the last decade for a reason. Also, the team’s morale after making it to the stage might significantly improve, as they’ve stepped over the first barrier and felt some progress from their work.
The Turks, on the contrary, look very tired and openly talk about it in interviews. However, the team is excellently coordinated and has a large baggage of ready-made strategies, which might be enough to prove stronger than a recently assembled team. On paper, Eternal Fire definitely looks like favorites, but again, we look back at the IEM Katowice 2025 playoffs and their performances in the group stage, after which it’s hard to definitively bet on their victory.
Talking about map veto strength hardly makes any sense here, as we’re confident that the team in better mental state will win. Based on this factor, we predict a small advantage for Falcons at 55-45.
FaZe vs SAW: How Did the Portuguese Get Here?
SAW is undoubtedly the main sensation of the tournament, as before the event started, the organization announced the departure of two players at once, making the Cluj-Napoca tournament literally the last dance for this roster. That’s exactly how their journey began, but after 0:2, the Portuguese seemed to drop a weight from their shoulders and played this championship without any pressure, earning extra prize money.
Getting past karrigan’s team in such a “chill” mode, especially on stage, definitely won’t happen, so FaZe can be congratulated on their semi-final spot in advance. Moreover, FaZe already look much better, and it’s no secret that this team always starts to reveal itself closer to playoffs. For ELiGE, playing on stage after a long break should also give additional impulse, thanks to which he’ll show a great performance.
Without further words – 95% for FaZe’s victory against 5% for SAW.
Semi-finals, Third Place Match, and Grand Final
In our feeling, the tournament bracket has formed in such a way that The MongolZ can already guarantee themselves a place in the grand final, while in the lower part, everything is much more complicated. Objectively, three teams can immediately contend for victory in the tournament, but Falcons and Eternal Fire face a much more difficult path, which will make their potential confrontation with FaZe more exhausting. Consequently, regardless of how the third quarter-final ends, karrigan’s squad will be considered favorites in the second semi-final. The fate of third place is less obvious, but as we’ve already said, participants from the lower part of the bracket look much stronger, so we bet that EF or Falcons will become bronze medalists.
Team chances based on playoff bracket distribution:
- The MongolZ – 23.21%
- FaZe Clan – 18.33%
- Team Falcons – 15.86%
- Eternal Fire – 14.66%
- paiN Gaming – 12.66%
- MOUZ – 6.96%
- Astralis – 6.33%
- SAW – 1.99%
