Prediction for BLAST Bounty 2025 Season 1: Who Will Claim the First Trophy of the Year?
From January 23 to 26, eight teams will compete in Copenhagen for the title of champion in the first season of BLAST Bounty. The tournament adopts a rather experimental format. Let’s examine its features and highlight the favorites and underdogs of the LAN stage.
The "Bounty" Mechanic
One of the tournament’s key features is the “Bounty” mechanic. Each team is assigned a “bounty” at the start, with the value depending on their ranking. The higher the team’s rank, the larger their bounty, making them a priority target for opponents. Teams earn half of their defeated opponent’s bounty, adding to their own.
The total prize pool is $500,000, distributed as follows:
- 1st–8th place: $40,000
- 9th–16th place: $26,250
- 17th–32nd place: $7,500
The Top Contenders
Team Spirit
The reigning Major champions are clear favorites. Team Spirit dominated the online stage, showcasing confidence and skill. HLTV’s Best Player of 2024, Danil “donk” Kryshkovets, appears poised to retain his title. His outstanding performance in the match against FlyQuest, ending with a staggering 2.30 rating and conceding only four rounds across two maps, makes it hard to envision anyone stopping him. According to donk, the team is in top form and heading to Denmark focused solely on claiming another trophy.
NAVI
While NAVI had a less dominant start to the season, particularly struggling against Imperial’s women’s team, their potential cannot be ignored. Close rounds and frequent clutch scenarios raised concerns, and the team’s AWPer, w0nderful, has been underwhelming, displaying inconsistent performance and emotional instability both in matches and on social media.
Despite these challenges, NAVI’s coach is renowned for his tactical preparation, and with ample time to strategize, the team could thrive in the short tournament format. For NAVI, proving their worth early in the season is crucial, and BLAST Bounty offers the perfect opportunity.
The Challengers
These teams always enter tournaments with the goal of claiming the trophy, and this time is no exception. However, recent roster changes leave them slightly behind the top competitors. Of course, any roster changes are often a step back to take two steps forward, but not enough time has passed for those “two steps” to materialize. Both Vitality and G2 showed decent performances with their new lineups, but visible issues remain, ones unlikely to be resolved in such a short time frame.
Vitality
Vitality, while a strong contender, finds itself slightly behind Spirit and NAVI due to recent roster changes. The addition of ropz has generated significant hype, but their near-comeback loss to Virtus.pro revealed growing pains, particularly on the T side. Captain apEX praised the newcomer, but the team’s struggles on maps like Train could be exploited by more polished teams like Spirit or NAVI.
G2
Similarly, G2 is adjusting to roster changes, with malbsMd stepping into a star role. While his individual performance has been commendable, two map losses to weaker opponents raise concerns. On a positive note, G2 has gained valuable experience playing under pressure, which could accelerate the new lineup’s development.
The Dark Horses.
Both Eternal Fire and paiN Gaming surprised many by making it to the top ranks despite roster changes. Eternal Fire took down the star-studded Falcons lineup, while paiN, bolstered by a Chilean newcomer, eliminated Shanghai Major finalists FaZe Clan.
These teams enter the tournament as underdogs, free from the pressure of high expectations. Their ability to choose favorable matchups and prepare meticulously could lead to a few upsets, but their championship prospects remain slim.
Teams Facing Challenges
Visa issues have plagued the likes of HEROIC and BetBoom Team, forcing roster adjustments. HEROIC’s replacement of tN1R with maden is less disruptive compared to BetBoom, which lost its captain and AWPer. Newcomer BoombI4 made significant contributions to BetBoom, and his absence leaves the team scrambling to adapt roles and strategies. With such setbacks, these teams are unlikely to achieve more than a top-8 finish.
Final Prediction
Here’s how the odds stack up for the tournament:
- Team Spirit: 24%
- Vitality: 22%
- Natus Vincere: 19%
- G2 Esports: 14%
- Eternal Fire: 8%
- paiN Gaming: 6%
- HEROIC: 5%
- BetBoom Team: 2%
The semifinals are expected to feature a clash between Spirit and NAVI, with the Dragons likely to emerge victorious. In the lower bracket, Vitality appears stronger than G2, though their encounters are always intense, fueled by the m0NESY vs. ZywOo rivalry.
