IEM Beijing 2026 Playoffs Predictions: Who Wins One of the Last Events Before the Singapore Major?
The Singapore Major is only a few weeks away, and teams have already moved to Asia to prepare for the last and biggest event of the season. IEM Beijing is the first stop, and winning it would bring some much-needed confidence into the final stretch of 2026.
Let’s get one thing out of the way: we don’t see this tournament as a reliable indicator. For one, Vitality aren’t here. For another, most teams flew to Beijing without a single day off, and some are running on fumes. That doesn’t apply to everyone, though, and for certain squads a schedule like this actually helps them stay sharp.
Either way, everyone will arrive at PGL Major Singapore in different shape, and the only team leaving Beijing with a real mental edge will be the one lifting the famous Intel Extreme Masters trophy.
The Biggest Disappointments
We won’t go through every team, just the ones that surprised us for the wrong reasons.
Falcons are the obvious headline after losing to NAVI twice and missing the playoffs. Frankly, there’s not much to say. Everyone knows this team can win any match or any tournament, and can lose them just as easily. Changes are likely coming, and they should start with the coach: more than a year in, Falcons still don’t have a map they can confidently pick. That’s despite skipping practice on the recently added Cache and even ending up with a slight advantage over other teams.
The second disappointment is G2, who have completely collapsed since swapping SunPayus for r1nkle. We called the move an obvious mistake from the very start, and so did most of the community. G2 now have just one win in their last 10 games and have finished dead last at two straight tournaments.
Finally, there’s Aurora, who didn’t even reach the lower bracket final and went down without a fight against BetBoom Team, taking just five rounds on each of the two maps. We’re willing to cut them some slack here because of fatigue: this team plays every event and goes deep, and the roster’s honeymoon phase is clearly coming to an end. Aurora still have plenty of upside, and an early exit could give them the break they need.
NAVI vs PARIVISION
- Win probability: NAVI 80%, PARIVISION 20%
Let’s be honest: Jame’s team didn’t play the kind of CS that deserves a playoff spot. Their match against MOUZ for a semifinal berth said it all, with MOUZ simply steamrolling PV. PARIVISION just got lucky with their opponents: all they had to do to reach the quarterfinals was beat G2, who are in an unbelievable slump, and Liquid, who haven’t been regulars at tier-one events for a long time.
Adding FL1T and bringing back HObbit has made the roster a little more stable, and the veterans’ experience is clearly showing. The cost has been a big drop-off from zweih. It looks like the younger players were more comfortable when Jame was the only veteran surrounded by four hungry kids. It’s hard to feel like a leader when you’re sitting between Major champions.
NAVI, on the other hand, have pulled it together at exactly the right time and hit incredible form, despite all their VRS problems and a very real risk of missing the Major. Their AWPer w0nderful deserves special mention. He’s tearing up every map, and even his teammates admit he’s the one carrying them right now.
Two convincing performances against Falcons should only add to their confidence heading into the playoffs, and the only thing that can stop them is underestimating their opponent. Even then, we don’t see a scenario where PARIVISION can take advantage. Ancient, PV’s best map, is also very comfortable for NAVI, who often pick it themselves, so we’re leaning toward a possible 2-0 with a bit of a fight on Ancient.
FURIA vs BetBoom Team
- Win probability: FURIA 65%, BetBoom Team 35%
These teams have played four times in the past month, including an incredibly tight five-map Bo5 grand final, and BetBoom have yet to take a single series. Can they finally end the losing streak in Beijing? We doubt it. The arena will definitely be behind FURIA, the Brazilians have the edge in experience, and it’s hard to find even one factor in favor of Boombl4’s team.
BetBoom clearly have some trouble closing out matches. When something goes wrong mid-series, they find it incredibly hard to refocus. They can give Liquid a comeback after leading 9-1 on the T side of Nuke, or let a game slip away from the start after dropping two or three key clutches. Right now they only win when they’re in a flow state, and FURIA know how to break opponents like that and rattle them even in eco rounds.
FURIA clearly expected to start the playoffs in the semifinals, but they simply ran out of gas against The MongolZ. Their coach was literally falling asleep and barely staying focused throughout IEM Beijing, while the players were getting through matches on adrenaline and competitive drive. They’ve now had almost two days to rest, so they should be back to their usual level and win this quarterfinal. The map veto could go any number of ways here, so our prediction leans more on form and mentality.
The MongolZ: Back Among the Best?
Credit where it’s due. After Senzu and mzinho left, it looked like this roster would never reach the final stages of a big event again. The experiment with academy players was a complete failure, and it’s a good thing management didn’t drag it out, quickly bringing back cobrazera and signing nin9. Yes, nin9 is already 28, but that’s exactly what’s helping him play at his peak here and now. Think back to last year: controlez played that same role for The MongolZ, stepping in for Senzu and helping the team maintain its level with almost no drop in quality, despite losing such a big star.
Sure, this isn’t a long-term play, but the problem with modern CS is that teams don’t get time to find their footing. Bomb out of two or three tournaments and you’re out of the running for tier-one invites and grinding it out in tier-two and tier-three events. Even NAVI were forced to play HyperX Retake Season 13, with its $13,642 prize pool. Almost any team could end up there now: just look at how quickly FaZe, Astralis, and Liquid dropped out of tier one, and how hard it’s been for them to get back.
As for this tournament, a potential matchup with NAVI looks like too much for them. The MongolZ can count on their aim, but w0nderful in his prime, with occasional help from his teammates, should neutralize that firepower.
MOUZ: Another Trophy Slipping Away?
MOUZ put together yet another great group stage, though their opponents weren’t exactly the strongest. We’ve also seen plenty of times how MOUZ stop playing in semifinals and pick up their beloved bronze medals in third-place deciders.
Their side of the bracket isn’t the easiest, and the most likely matchup against FURIA should be a mini-final for both teams. On paper, MOUZ are our clear favorites, but in practice, we can’t forget their endless shock failures. Yes, they have the best chance to win right now, having skipped the quarterfinals, but we’re constantly reminded that CS and stats rarely go hand in hand and often contradict each other.
Title Odds
Here’s how we rank the teams, from top favorite to biggest underdog:
- MOUZ: 30%. The clear favorites on paper and already in the semifinals.
- NAVI: 28%. w0nderful’s peak form and an easy path.
- FURIA: 22%. The most dangerous team if they’ve recovered, but a tough match against MOUZ is almost certainly next.
- The MongolZ: 11%. Already in the semifinals, but NAVI are likely waiting for them there.
- BetBoom Team: 6%. A losing streak against FURIA and trouble closing out matches.
- PARIVISION: 3%. The weakest play of any team in the playoffs.
But if we threw out all the analysis and picked a winner with our hearts, it would be FURIA. We remember what a brilliant run they had last fall, and after back-to-back titles, it feels like they could lift a third and give us a second straight unforgettable fall.
Alex
Alex is an author and esports observer with more than seven years of experience. He specializes in analyzing new releases in the world of computer games, gaming services, and in-game economies. Alex shares practical experience and an expert perspective on the development of gaming, helping readers understand complex mechanics and stay up to date with the latest news.
