PGL Astana 2026 Winner Predictions: Favorites, Dark Horses, and the Tournament Everyone’s Been Waiting For – Without Vitality
The first half of 2026 has once again been dominated by CS’s biggest villains – Vitality, who just keep on rolling and won’t let anyone else get their hands on a trophy. This year, only PARIVISION managed to beat them at a tournament where they showed up – BLAST Bounty S1. The other two titles went to NAVI at ESL Pro League S23 and FUT at PGL Bucharest 2026 (though calling that one a proper Tier-1 event is a stretch). This time around, every top team is heading to the Kazakh capital, and walking away with the trophy here will be a massive achievement even without Vitality in the picture.
In this piece, we’ll break down the main contenders and dig into the storylines surrounding each of them. Will Falcons and MOUZ click in their new rosters with karrigan and jL? Has s0tF1k managed to earn the respect of his Spirit teammates? And how ready are PARIVISION after nearly a month away from LAN events?
Spirit. Good vibes coming out of Rio
- Win probability: 25%
The Brazililan tournament started about as badly as it possibly could for the Dragons – at one point, they were literally one map away from getting knocked out by Red Canids. But after that, they didn’t drop a single map all the way to the Grand Final against Vitality. At some point, Spirit seemed to remember why this roster was put together in the first place – to end the Bees’ era. With the new coach on board, tN1R has really come into his own, and magixx looks noticeably more confident in his calls, slowly but surely growing into the team’s leader.
If the guys haven’t lost that momentum and put in the work ahead of defending their PGL Astana title, then they’re the clear favorites to win it all. donk needs to rediscover his form and start dropping those 1.50 ratings again, while zont1x finally needs to become the version of himself they brought back for. With s0tF1k in the mix, the team has a lot more freedom – they’re no longer locked into hally’s rigid gameplan that left no room for improvisation. These young guys want to play on instinct, and every single one of them has the skill to pull it off.
They’ll make the playoffs – that much is almost certain – and the crowd will be absolutely electric behind this Eastern European squad. That energy might just be the thing that finally unlocks this roster’s full potential and gets them that first championship.
FURIA. molodoy is back home
- Win probability: 20.5%
A year ago, this tournament was molodoy’s very first Tier-1 event, and he absolutely delivered on debut. Nobody expected this FURIA lineup to work, but now we’ve seen exactly what they’re capable of. FURIA just finished playing in front of their home crowd in Brazil, and now it’s Kazakhstan’s turn to get loud for them. Sure, the home atmosphere didn’t help much in Brazil – but they were up against Vitality, and the news about FalleN’s departure clearly hit the team’s morale hard. That’s really the main reason FURIA fell apart at BLAST Rivals S1.
If there’s one place where molodoy should be finding his best form again, it’s here. You couldn’t design a better setting for a reset and a renewed focus on the rest of the year. Every single FURIA player needs to grab this opportunity, lift that trophy, and carry that energy into the back half of 2026. FalleN’s clock is ticking, and he cannot walk away from the pro scene without a gold medal around his neck.
Falcons. Is karrigan the chosen one?
- Win probability: 18%
Everyone’s calling Falcons the tournament favorites, and honestly, it’s hard to argue against that – we were genuinely excited when karrigan joined too. But every time we start believing in them, they let us down. So until we actually see this new lineup prove they can challenge Vitality’s throne, we’re not going to get too hyped just yet.
On paper, everything looks incredibly strong and the storylines write themselves. NiKo reunites with karrigan to finally finish what they started and claim that first Major. Young guns m0NESY and kyousuke are waiting for the veteran Dane to pass on the wisdom he’s gathered over his long career and take their games to another level. And TeSeS and zonic now have another fellow Dane on the squad, which should make the whole experience a lot more comfortable for them.
The one real issue here is the weight of expectations that just won’t go away, even after all this time. Think about it – it’s pretty rare for a team to still have this much faith and pressure on them after so many disappointments. In our opinion, managing that narrative has to be karrigan’s number one job in this team. He needs to be the guy who walks in and says: “Forget all the noise, trust me, and we’ll win this.” Whether he can pull that off at the very first event together – we’ll find out soon enough.
PARIVISION. Jame + dastan + Kazakhstan.
- Win probability: 11.5%
It’s no secret that Jame and dastan are beloved in Kazakhstan, going all the way back to their AVANGAR days when the two represented their country in the StarLadder Major Berlin 2019 Grand Final. So whenever PARIVISION step on that stage, the crowd is going to be firmly behind them in almost every match – possibly even against FURIA. Getting out of the group stage is something Jame’s boys simply have to do, but the Swiss system has historically been brutal for them. They have a habit of going 2-0 early and then grinding all the way to the 2-2 elimination match.
This time should be different, though. PARIVISION have been out of the tournament circuit for nearly a month – resting, preparing, and they’ve almost certainly cooked up something interesting for this event. Jame’s teams have always shown up strong after long breaks, as we saw at BLAST Bounty S1 where they won it all, and at PGL Cluj-Napoca where they reached the Grand Final. The youngsters still lack experience in deep tournament runs, but over a short stretch, they can beat literally anyone. For us, they’re the dark horse of PGL Astana – the team everyone might have forgotten about after sitting out the recent events.
Aurora. A return to their roots
- Win probability: 8%
PGL Astana 2025 was also one of Aurora’s first events under the new banner, following a painful split from Eternal Fire. The Turkish fanbase wasn’t exactly thrilled about the transition at first, but a strong performance and a bronze medal quickly won them back. In 2026, since soulfly joined, the team has been consistently making playoffs – though at IEM Rio they gave up their spot to NAVI, who also beat them in the ESL Pro League S23 Grand Final.
Aurora’s usual pattern after a rough stretch is to regroup and put in the work. Yes, their chances of lifting the trophy are slimmer than the top four, but they’re absolutely not a team you can write off. Aurora has a tendency to go on a run at events where their kryptonite isn’t in the building (Vitality and NAVI), and they’ll fight tooth and nail for every chance to get their hands on that trophy.
MOUZ. jL breaks the ice
- Win probability: 6.5%
MOUZ finally realized that without shaking things up, they were going nowhere – so they went ahead and made two roster changes at once. While calling up one of their academy players felt pretty predictable, jL’s return to the pro scene came completely out of nowhere. The Mousesports squad desperately needed a spark of energy, and the Lithuanian is exactly the kind of guy to bring that. Beyond just the morale boost, jL brings a wealth of experience from his brilliant 2024 run with NAVI. He knows exactly how you build a winning team when you’re not working with generational talents – just a bunch of hardworking players who grind it out. MOUZ have always been that kind of team, and the jL signing looks like a really smart move, even if it’s unclear how sharp he is right now.
As for the IGL change, that also makes a lot of sense – xertioN was constantly vocal during timeouts and was clearly one of the main voices in the team after sycrone. MOUZ’s coach has never really emphasized the IGL role, and it always seemed like anyone in the lineup could step into it. All in all, the roster looks really promising, but expecting them to make a deep run at their very first event together feels like too big of an ask. jL has been away for a long time, xelex is only 17, and this lineup probably needs more than one tournament to really hit its ceiling.
Everyone else's chances:
- The MongolZ (4.5%) – the roster just can’t find its footing after losing Senzu.
- G2 (3.5%) – NertZ’s arrival hasn’t changed much, and losing to FaZe at BLAST makes it hard to see them beating even stronger teams.
- HEROIC (<1%) – they’ll find an AWPer someday.
- Gentle Mates (<1%) – making the Major was the mission, and it’s already done.
- k27 (<1%) – renting fame is a smart pickup, could snag a win or two in the group stage.
- Monte, 9z (<1%) – still nobody really knows what these teams are trying to do.
- magic, Fisher College (<1%) – having a Kazakh player on the roster = instant crowd boost in Astana.
- The Huns (<1%) – basically a home tournament for them, but their previous Tier-1 runs haven’t exactly gone well.
Author: Alex
Alex is an author and esports observer with more than seven years of experience. He specializes in analyzing new releases in the world of computer games, gaming services, and in-game economies. Alex shares practical experience and an expert perspective on the development of gaming, helping readers understand complex mechanics and stay up to date with the latest news.
