IEM Cologne Major 2026 Playoff Pick’Em: Will We Already Know the Champion by the Quarterfinals?
Cologne is heading into the home stretch. Of the 32 teams that showed up, only 8 made it to the playoffs. The earlier stages went by without much drama, but Stage 3 caught a lot of people off guard. Vitality were stunned by 9z, and those same 9z went on to make life miserable for Spirit and knock The MongolZ out before the quarters. Another shock was BetBoom Team punching their ticket through — a squad that’s been here since day one and will end up spending nearly a full month in Cologne.
A few unexpected results didn’t just blow up everyone’s Pick’Ems; they also left the bracket badly lopsided. Spirit, Vitality, and Falcons — the three teams most people pegged as the favorites — all landed in the bottom half. So if any of them lifts the trophy, nobody’s going to call it a soft or undeserved run. By the look of it, we’re in for the most compelling playoff bracket in a couple of years, so let’s dig into the Pick’Ems and try to make sense of what this weekend in Cologne has in store.
Pick'Em from SIH
- Quarterfinals — FURIA, BetBoom Team, G2, Falcons
- Semifinals — FURIA, Falcons
- Grand Final — FURIA
Let’s say it up front: our Pick’Em is an experiment, built on the idea that FURIA are simply the more seasoned team compared to the rest of the quarterfinalists on their side of the bracket. 9z have looked great, no question — this is their second straight tier-1 playoff appearance. But we still remember Astana, where the South Americans fell to magic and never found their CS. As for the other quarterfinal, Aurora are reliably shaky in the playoffs, while BetBoom Team have already exceeded every expectation and will play with zero pressure on their shoulders. It’s entirely possible BoombI4’s squad repeats their Atlanta run and folds in the playoffs — but the exact same thing could happen to the Turks, so this one’s a genuine coin flip.
For the bottom half, we decided to bet on the classic 3-0 group-stage curse and assume it strikes as early as the quarters. FURIA have put together a few solid series with comebacks and clean wins alike, while Spirit might walk onto that stage a little too relaxed. Their match against 9z showed that, undefeated record aside, they’re missing a coach behind them — someone who can call a timeout and offer an outside read when things start slipping.
And the final matchup: Vitality have run straight into their kryptonite in Falcons, and here’s why this is such a convenient opponent for them. Falcons play every single match under enormous pressure — the talk of huge financial investment, the doubts about zonic’s competence; even Finn Andersen admitted he’d never played under that kind of stress in his entire career. But when you’re up against the best team in the world, the crowd wants them to lose, not you. That’s exactly why Falcons tend to play their best against Vitality — nobody’s going to throw stones at them for dropping that one. And of course, Falcons have to fulfill their true calling: lose in the grand final — only this time, they hand the win to the godfather himself, FalleN.
Pick'Em from n0rb3r7
- Quarterfinals — FURIA, BetBoom Team, Spirit, Vitality
- Semifinals — FURIA, Spirit
- Grand Final — Spirit
David is one of the few still in the running for the diamond medal, and you have to admit his Pick’Em looks pretty rock-solid. He went with the obvious favorites across the board (BetBoom Team aside) and backs Spirit to beat Vitality in the semis. That potential matchup is the one that raises the most questions for us. donk alone — and the raw individual skill of the others — might not be enough, because apEX always knows how to play against that kind of style. But then again, who are we to argue with a Major winner who’s run the table through all three stages without a single slip-up?
Pick'Em from Banks
- Quarterfinals — 9z, Aurora, Spirit, Vitality
- Semifinals — 9z, Vitality
- Grand Final — Vitality
Banks is another believer in the 3-0 curse, except he reckons it’ll bite FURIA rather than Spirit. We honestly can’t see any other reason to take 9z over FURIA — but the truly baffling part is the Brit then having 9z beat Aurora. Did he skip the group stage and miss Aurora handling them 2-1 in the bracket? It’s a curious call that’s tough to break down — but hey, the weirder the pick, the better the story, right?
Pick'Em from CS Tactics
- Quarterfinals — FURIA, Aurora, Spirit, Vitality
- Semifinals — FURIA, Vitality
- Grand Final — Vitality
Keeping up our tradition of checking in with the content creators, this time we’re looking at the read from CS Tactics. Well — looks like we stumbled onto the safe-pick special, because you’d be hard-pressed to find a more by-the-numbers Pick’Em. Even the AI models managed this much, but more on that later.
Pick'Em from Raiz
- Quarterfinals — FURIA, BetBoom Team, Spirit, Falcons
- Semifinals — FURIA, Falcons
- Grand Final — Falcons
Now here’s Eastern Europe’s biggest media personality betting on Kovač’s first-ever Major title. Evgeny is a creative soul, so this time he decided to write a full-on fairy tale with a Pick’Em like this. A maiden Major win, and going through Vitality, Spirit, and FURIA in BO5s to get there — that’s the kind of storyline they’d absolutely make a documentary about. Then again, would Falcons trade seven second-place finishes for a single Major trophy? We’re pretty sure they would. Common sense just refuses to buy this outcome — though Falcons really do have the ceiling to pull off exactly this kind of surprise.
Pick'Em from Thorin
- Quarterfinals — FURIA, Aurora, Spirit, Vitality
- Semifinals — FURIA, Vitality
- Grand Final — Vitality
Old man Thorin also played it by the book and couldn’t muster anything surprising this time around. Seems the Brit is losing his touch and can’t dream up the wild storylines that the younger Raiz still has in him.
Pick'Em from Overdrive
- Quarterfinals — FURIA, BetBoom Team, Spirit, Vitality
- Semifinals — FURIA, Spirit
- Grand Final — Spirit
Spirit’s controversial scout is heading to Cologne with one goal in mind: to see Spirit crowned champions and remind everyone all over again that he’s the one who scouted donk. The unusual part of his Pick’Em is BetBoom Team reaching the semis — but on that one we’re with him, and our reasoning for their clash with Aurora lines up.
Pick'Em from the AI Models
We figured we’d ask the AIs for their playoff predictions at IEM Cologne Major 2026, and they’re unanimous: Vitality take it. Not a single one of them believes in Falcons, Spirit, or FURIA. The only point of difference — Elon Musk’s brainchild backed BetBoom Team to advance instead of Aurora.
Pick’Em from Grok
- Quarterfinals — FURIA, BetBoom Team, Spirit, Vitality
- Semifinals — FURIA, Vitality
- Grand Final — Vitality
Pick’Em from Claude
- Quarterfinals — FURIA, Aurora, Spirit, Vitality
- Semifinals — FURIA, Vitality
- Grand Final — Vitality
Pick’Em from ChatGPT
- Quarterfinals — FURIA, Aurora, Spirit, Vitality
- Semifinals — FURIA, Vitality
- Grand Final — Vitality
Alex
Alex is an author and esports observer with more than seven years of experience. He specializes in analyzing new releases in the world of computer games, gaming services, and in-game economies. Alex shares practical experience and an expert perspective on the development of gaming, helping readers understand complex mechanics and stay up to date with the latest news.
