IEM Krakow Playoff Predictions! The Legacy of IEM Katowice: Who Will Become the First Champion of CS’s Oldest Tournament?
Last year, ESL announced the relocation of the legendary tournament from Katowice to Krakow. It might seem insignificant, but the Spodek Arena was truly an iconic venue for the esports community. However, the professional scene has grown to such a level that it simply became too cramped, and the tournament operator decided to relocate. Fortunately, the trophy remained unchanged, along with all the previous history of this prestigious tournament. Therefore, despite the new location and name, Vitality remain the defending champions who must either defend their trophy or pass this status to another team. Will apEX and company manage to lift the cup for a second time, or will someone else do it? Let’s break it down in this article.
Playoff Bracket
Before analyzing each team, let’s talk briefly about the playoff bracket. Spirit and Vitality took first place in their groups and advanced directly to the tournament semifinals. This means they currently have the highest chances of winning in Krakow. The two quarterfinals turned out fairly balanced, and it’s particularly unusual not to see Falcons among the top 6, as they lost the deciding match to the MOUZ squad.
G2 – 9% Win Chance
Despite confidently advancing through the upper bracket in Group A, we believe the Samurai are one of the weakest teams in the final six. To reach the playoffs, they defeated far from the strongest teams – FUT and The MongolZ. Some might object and point out that G2 performed respectably against Spirit, but the Dragons themselves are in a rebuilding phase and are playing at about 60% of their prime. The team’s main problem remains the extremely inconsistent SunPayus, who not only fails to execute with the AWP but also quite often ends up last and simply watches as his teammates die. In the match against MOUZ, when the opposing team has torzsi, the difference in snipers already puts G2 a step behind.
G2 show fairly decent CS, and you can clearly see coach sAw’s work, but when opponents disrupt their round plans – the team frankly gets lost. The Samurai roster includes 3 incredibly strong riflers: malbsMd, HeavyGod, and MATYS, but they clearly lack the experience to take the game into their own hands. Each of them turns up on specific maps but isn’t capable of being that locomotive who instills confidence in their teammates. Even if G2 manage to get past MOUZ, they have no chance of defeating Vitality. Therefore, the given 9% is already quite a high chance based on what we saw in the group stage and the playoff bracket structure.
Aurora – 11% Win Chance
The Turkish squad has undoubtedly become the main discovery of IEM Krakow. First – they’re the only team that advanced to the playoffs from the first stage, and second – they defeated teams like Falcons and MOUZ and gave Vitality an incredible fight on Ancient 22:25. Recall that before the season began, Aurora made a roster change: jottAAA left and was replaced by soulfly. But the main factor in the Turks’ success was, of course, Anubis’s return. Thanks to excellent play on this map, they performed successfully in the first half of 2025, regularly making playoffs at major events. Now even Vitality fear them on Anubis, choosing to ban it instead of their usual Ancient ban. So if everything is so great for Aurora, why do we rank them below FURIA?
The reason is quite simple – the Turks’ traditionally poor LAN performances. This is now compounded by the presence of an inexperienced newcomer, for whom the Krakow arena will be his first experience playing in front of a full stadium. We can’t count on a miracle and give an unfounded prediction that at this particular tournament, the crowd won’t affect the team. Otherwise, Aurora really does have everything going well: woxic has started hitting shots with the AWP again, and MAJ3R is delivering perhaps the strongest tournament of his entire career. We wouldn’t be surprised by Aurora advancing to the semifinals or even the grand final, because based on the group stage results they were truly good, but we won’t bet on it.
MOUZ – 13% Win Chance
As you can see, the Mice don’t significantly outpace their first opponents – G2 – in win chances. This means their head-to-head matchup is valued at approximately 60-40 in favor of MOUZ. But speaking about Vitality, they clearly don’t look like favorites in a potential matchup. The team had an unconvincing group stage, and considering they skipped the previous tier-1 event – BLAST Bounty S1 2026 – we can conclude the team is just getting into the season.
This directly reflects in their gameplay – the Mice often start maps very poorly and frequently have to make comebacks during matches. It’s difficult to single out anyone on the team, and actually – this works in their favor. The team works as a unified whole, and considering the guys have been playing in this roster for over a year – this is quite logical. There’s a feeling they’ll reach their peak by spring, and lifting the trophy at the very first tournament of the new season – that’s definitely not MOUZ’s story. The team doesn’t yet have enough experience to come back from vacation and defeat opponents “on class” alone. They’re true hard workers for whom nothing comes easy, and to win the tournament they haven’t yet done enough preparatory work.
FURIA – 16% Win Chance
Another team that’s just getting into the new season. After a triumphant autumn last year, many expected to see something similar from FURIA at the start of 2026, but so far the guys are frankly struggling. However, they’re doing it much more brightly, “on class,” and by their own admission, losing to themselves. We agree that FURIA is currently making more mistakes than being genuinely outplayed. So there’s hope that in a couple of days they can fix their errors and properly prepare for Aurora. The main task – molodoy’s recovery, as he played the group stage while sick.
The main intrigue in the quarterfinal match between FURIA and Aurora – is the map veto. Both teams don’t play Ancient, and it will be interesting to see if FURIA repeats Vitality’s gamble by banning Anubis. On stage, FURIA feels much more comfortable, and by all accounts, they should advance to the IEM Krakow semifinals, where Spirit already await them.
Spirit – 22% Win Chance
The Dragons are playing their second tournament with the updated roster, and no major changes are visible yet. The team’s potential is simply incredible, but at the moment this mechanism isn’t sufficiently well-oiled. The group stage performance is hard to call “clean,” but wins are wins, and what’s especially valuable – they defeated such a structured team as NAVI. This shows that despite fairly chaotic CS, they know how to capitalize on their strengths and have good chemistry with each other. Chemistry between players – is Spirit’s main weapon right now. Each player trusts their teammate, and even when one of them gets 2 frags in 30 rounds, the others can be confident that in overtime he’ll pull off a 1v4 clutch.
They’re still far from ideal, and it’s difficult to confidently speak of their victory over FURIA or Aurora. If they reach the grand final, the five-map distance will definitely work in their favor, but it’s still unknown whether they’ll get there and who their opponent will be.
Vitality – 29% Win Chance
Yes, it’s obvious. Yes, we’ve been burned many times by these “100%” Vitality predictions, but in this situation we can’t do otherwise, especially considering it’s the beginning of the season. Teams are just getting into form, trying to come up with something new, while these monsters already have everything needed for victory. The players’ individual skill is so great that they don’t need to ease into the season, especially since they’ve already had one such “warm-up” tournament.
Author: Alex
Alex is an author and esports observer with more than seven years of experience. He specializes in analyzing new releases in the world of computer games, gaming services, and in-game economies. Alex shares practical experience and an expert perspective on the development of gaming, helping readers understand complex mechanics and stay up to date with the latest news.
