PGL Cluj-Napoca 2026 Playoff Predictions. Is the Vitality Era Continuing?
For the second year in a row, a $1,250,000 LAN is being held in Cluj-Napoca, but unlike last year, almost all top teams have made the trip to Romania this time. Against expectations, the event has turned out to be extremely competitive, with 7 of the 8 teams that advanced to the playoffs ranked in the top 10 on HLTV (Aurora sits at top 11). It seems like we’re in for an incredibly spectacular battle for the trophy, but unfortunately the form of the teams still leaves something to be desired. Let’s hope the crowd at BT Arena can create a great atmosphere and push every team to perform at their best. Let’s break down who is contending for the title and where each team will finish by the end of the tournament.
Falcons vs PARIVISION. Is It Really That Clear-Cut?
- 65/35 in favor of Falcons
On paper, and especially based on the group stage results, the star-studded Falcons lineup are the clear favorites. Two players — kyousuke and m0NESY — rank in the top 3 performers of the tournament and are showing that they’re in solid form. Zero losses in the group stage, the ability to win on almost any map (except Overpass), and a hunger for trophies all point toward backing them. And spoiler: we will — but we’ll still plant a seed of doubt and try to explain why believing in Jame’s crew in this quarterfinal is far from absurd.
First of all, PARIVISION have already achieved their main goal for this tournament — reaching the playoffs. The team needs this to maintain a comfortable VRS rating, keep their confidence after their supposedly “lucky” victory at BLAST Bounty S1 2026, and gain invaluable experience playing on a big stage. There’s no pressure on them anymore, and nobody will blame them for losing, while Falcons have been feeling that pressure for over a year now. This is confirmed by PARIVISION’s coach — dastan:
The second point concerns Jame and company’s performance in the group stage — they played against the strongest opponents (MOUZ, G2, FaZe, FURIA, FUT) and each of those matches ended 2:1. You have to admit, that’s not the easiest path to the playoffs, and the close maps speak to the team’s character — something Falcons, frankly, have been lacking, especially in big moments. And let’s not forget Jame’s gamble playstyle: he loves to guess where the opponent’s attack is coming from and run a 4+1 setup on the plants, while on the attacking side he won’t hesitate to repeat the same execute onto kyxsan’s position 12 rounds in a row. If luck is on PV’s side on Friday, they are more than capable of winning this match — that’s exactly how they took the grand final against Falcons at BLAST Bounty S1. However, back then the Falcons were playing with a stand-in, and now kyousuke is back, and on a good day he can single-handedly shut down teams like this.
NAVI vs MOUZ. Will the Home Crowd Help iM?
- 40/60 — MOUZ look stronger.
Simultaneously the most predictable and the most unpredictable quarterfinal. The teams met in the group stage and MOUZ absolutely dismantled NAVI across two maps without mercy. In theory, not much should have changed in just a couple of days — but NAVI have a trump card in the form of crowd support, since their roster includes Romanian player iM. Last year NAVI skipped the Cluj-Napoca tournament, but iM attended the arena as a spectator, and the crowd absolutely erupted at the sight of their compatriot. It’s hard to imagine what will happen when he steps out not as a guest, but as a competitor fighting for the trophy. Moments like that typically fuel players with energy and inspire overperformances, and iM is the kind of player who can pull off an outstanding match at the most unexpected time.
MOUZ, on the other hand, have been performing very confidently in the group stage, but tend to fall apart when stepping onto the big stage — which was once again proven in Krakow, where they were first crushed by Vitality and then finished off by Spirit in the third-place match. Still, we lean toward a MOUZ victory, because NAVI right now are not the team you need to fear, even with an incredibly motivated iM. We always love to factor in not just the in-game aspect, but the mental one too — but here it only slightly shifted the odds distribution.
Vitality vs Aurora. Will Vitality Ban Anubis?
- 80/20 in favor of Vitality
Every time we talk about the Turkish squad, we have to bring up their ultimate Anubis, which almost always comes to their rescue and guarantees a win on their own pick. It was precisely thanks to that map that they clawed their way into the playoffs at IEM Krakow — but in their group stage meeting, Vitality chose to ban Anubis. Aurora was then forced to take a risk and pick Ancient, a map neither team has practiced in official matches. In Poland that gamble paid off for the French organization, who closed it out 2:0 — but can they pull the same trick twice in a row?
Alright, let’s drop the suspense — Vitality are going to win this match regardless, even if they decide not to ban Anubis. Honestly, if we were in apEX’s shoes, we wouldn’t be afraid of the Turkish team’s signature map anymore, since they already lost on Anubis at this very tournament to a far-from-dominant NAVI, while Vitality themselves boast a 100% win rate on that map. Even if the Anubis gamble somehow backfires, Vitality have more than enough firepower to close out Aurora on the remaining two maps. The Turkish side barely scraped through to the playoffs, and on the big stage nobody is going to let them come back from 2:10. Aurora’s only real chance of grabbing a semifinal spot is if ropz is still sick — but the Estonian has had three days to recover and get back on the BT Arena server in decent shape.
FURIA vs The MongolZ. Have the Mongolians Returned to the Top?
- 65/35 — FURIA win
In our view, the Mongolians are not playing their best CS right now, and their “confident” run to the playoffs at 3:1 doesn’t accurately reflect the team’s true form. To make the top 8 they beat paiN, B8, and NAVI — and dropped a map to each of them, which, let’s be honest, doesn’t look like a particularly confident run given the level of those opponents. You’d think their win over Vitality on Mirage would be the bright spot showcasing The MongolZ’s strength — but in their very next match they lost on Mirage 2:10 on the T-side against NAVI. The Mongolians’ main strength remains their individual aim, but their team coordination still leaves a lot to be desired. Given that their opponent is FURIA — a team that outclasses them in both departments — the Mongolians really don’t have much of a chance.
FURIA stays true to their own style, playing the kind of CS that relies heavily on trust between teammates. In the group stage, this sometimes worked against them — especially YEKINDAR’s overly risky plays — but in critical moments they always fell back on their default setups, which allowed them to close out maps in their favor. We’re not sure they’re ready to take on Vitality in the semifinals, but in the quarterfinals, The MongolZ are simply no match for them.
Final Bracket and Standings Predictions
If our predictions hold up, we’re looking at semifinals of Falcons/MOUZ and FURIA/Vitality. In that case, we’re confidently calling a Falcons/Vitality grand final with Vitality taking the trophy. The main reason remains Falcons’ inconsistency in key matches — though it feels like this time they’ll come closer to the title than ever before. In the third-place match, FURIA are the clear favorites, as MOUZ will once again drop their heads after yet another collapse one step away from the grand final.
The approximate win probabilities look like this:
- Vitality — 29.1%
- Falcons — 24.3%
- FURIA — 14.6%
- MOUZ — 9.7%
- NAVI — 9.7%
- The MongolZ — 4.9%
- PARIVISION — 4.9%
- Aurora — 2.8%
Author: Alex
Alex is an author and esports observer with more than seven years of experience. He specializes in analyzing new releases in the world of computer games, gaming services, and in-game economies. Alex shares practical experience and an expert perspective on the development of gaming, helping readers understand complex mechanics and stay up to date with the latest news.
