Team Spirit risk losing donk? Prediction for the BLAST Open Rotterdam 2026 Playoffs
Another group stage of a tier-1 event has come to an end, which means it’s time to look at the leaders, discuss the results of recent matches, and make a prediction for the winner of BLAST Open Rotterdam 2026. Out of 16 teams, only 6 will make it to the arena in the Netherlands to compete for the trophy and the lion’s share of the $1,100,000 prize pool. We’ll also discuss the situation at Team Spirit, where things are going far from what everyone expected after the roster update.
Why isn't Spirit working?
The Dragons are failing at their fourth tournament of 2026 and have dropped to 8th in the HLTV rankings — their worst position since 2024. The most painful part is that all of this is happening with the best player in the world on the roster, who is clearly not happy watching his opponents’ backs. Everyone and their mother is talking about the Dragons’ decline, but almost no one is discussing how to actually fix the situation. “Spirit’s acclaimed management needs to react,” “They risk losing donk,” “This roster doesn’t work” — that’s all we hear from the experts, but where are the actual solutions?
In reality, it’s quite simple — there’s virtually no recipe for the Dragons, because on paper everything looks fine, and it’s not entirely clear who needs to be replaced. Obviously, magixx is struggling first and foremost with the role of a leader who can carry the team forward — but are there any available alternatives right now? Hardly. chopper isn’t even thinking about a comeback — by all accounts, he’s perfectly comfortable as a streamer, and experienced active in-game leaders are simply nowhere to be found.
The organization is trying to change its approach and even sent the team to a bootcamp, something that had never happened before. The guys are putting in the effort and adapting to new roles, but those lost, blank looks during matches are becoming more and more frequent. The team needs at least a year to try to realize the potential this roster undoubtedly has. But will donk want to spend that long without trophies? By his own words, he’s loyal to the Dragons — however, fate may force him to follow the logic of the old saying “If you love someone, let them go” and move to another team. It’s worth noting that after the Major in Budapest we discussed this very topic, suggesting that bringing back magixx was almost the only way for Spirit to keep Danya. As we can see, that hasn’t worked so far, and while in December the idea of him leaving was met with laughter, it’s gaining more and more weight now. The Dragons are very lucky that the best player in the world is so loyal to the organization and is giving them time. Whether they’ll be able to take advantage of that and get back on track — we’ll find out sooner or later.
PARIVISION vs Falcons
- 50/50, Falcons are unpredictable
Moving on from the sad to something more positive — PARIVISION is definitely one of those positive stories. We never stop being impressed by Jame and the team he’s built from the very bottom of the pro scene. The guys breezed past Spirit and came agonizingly close to upsetting Vitality, in some ways giving that game away themselves. The next playoff matchup pits them against Falcons, who for some reason are extremely comfortable opponents for them. Across 6 maps, Falcons have only managed to win one, and Jame clearly knows how to beat superstars with six-figure contracts — no matter how much the sheikhs insist otherwise. After such a confident group stage performance, everyone naturally expects PARIVISION to win, and playing on a live arena stage is no longer a burden for the young players.
As for Falcons, kyousuke barely managed to get his visa in time and arrived only for the team’s second match, and the guys still showed what they’d been working on during their absence from ESL Pro League S23. Yet this team remains as much of an enigma as ever — their match against NAVI seemed to be in their hands, but at some point they simply stopped playing; in another game they dropped a map to TYLOO, and then they only lost 3 rounds across two maps. The match against FURIA was just as much of a rollercoaster: after inexplicably losing Dust2 when everything was going their way, they were down 3:9 on Nuke before putting on a flawless defensive performance.
Gut feeling says Falcons can break their losing streak and beat PARIVISION, but logic won’t allow us to say that — so we’re calling this one a pure 50/50. Looking ahead, it’s worth noting that whichever team advances will have no trouble beating NAVI and reaching the grand final.
Aurora vs The MongolZ
60/40 in favor of The MongolZ
If the previous quarterfinal is practically deciding a finalist, this one is the complete opposite — whoever comes out of it will have no answer for Vitality regardless. So the intrigue around the winner feels somewhat diminished, even though matches between the Turks and the Mongolians have already become something of a classic derby. These teams face each other very frequently, and interestingly, their trajectories and even playstyles are remarkably similar.
Both squads have made one roster change and are now writing a new chapter on the pro scene. Last tournament, Aurora made it to the grand final but couldn’t hold it together against NAVI. Playoffs have always been a tough climb for the Turks — but The MongolZ can’t exactly be called strong in arena matches either. In terms of pure gameplay, it’s again difficult to pick a clear favorite, so we’ll lean on the numbers to determine the winner here.
In our view, the map pool favors The MongolZ, who don’t play Anubis and can put up a real fight on Aurora’s strongest maps. The poor Overpass stats are somewhat misleading — even at this tournament they only lost to Vitality in overtime. On Dust2, they beat those same Turks just last tournament, so the low win rate there shouldn’t worry Mongolian fans either. We’ll give a slight edge to The MongolZ, 60/40.
NAVI, Vitality, and the chances for the trophy
These two teams advanced directly to the semifinals and automatically have a higher chance of winning it all than the rest of the field. While Vitality already have one foot not just in the grand final but on the championship podium, NAVI feel like they stumbled into the top 4 somewhat by luck. First a match against B8, then Falcons — where kyousuke played literally a couple of hours after landing in Denmark — and then a fairly comfortable Aurora. Vitality, in their match against PARIVISION, once again demonstrated why they are the best team in the world and showed off that unique aura of theirs.
Honestly, it’s completely unclear how to beat apEX and company, so this tournament will in all likelihood go to them again. Every single player on that team makes opponents nervous and forces them into mistakes. Vitality themselves barely make any, and the only way to take a round off them is to simply outshoot them and avoid letting things come down to clutch situations. If Vitality are left 2v4 or 3v5, that doesn’t give their opponents any real advantage
Win probability
- Vitality — 62.0%
- NAVI — 16.2%
- Falcons — 8.1%
- PARIVISION — 8.1%
- The MongolZ — 5.7%
- Aurora — 5.1%
Author: Alex
Alex is an author and esports observer with more than seven years of experience. He specializes in analyzing new releases in the world of computer games, gaming services, and in-game economies. Alex shares practical experience and an expert perspective on the development of gaming, helping readers understand complex mechanics and stay up to date with the latest news.
