ESL Pro League S23 Playoff Preview: Why Is This the Worst Season in Tournament History?
From March 1–10, the group stage of ESL Pro League Season 23 took place, divided into two stages. The format itself hasn’t changed much, but the major shift this year is different — ESL decided to move all qualifying matches online, while the playoffs will be held in front of a live audience in Stockholm. Previously, the event ran entirely in a studio format with no fans. In this article, we’ll explain why the format change can so far be considered a failure, break down the group stage results, and make predictions for the tournament winner.
Why Is the EPL S23 Group Stage the Worst Thing to Happen to CS in Years?
First, let’s talk about ESL’s scheduling — which is already frequently criticized. Allocating just 2.5 hours for a full BO3 is simply absurd. If a match doesn’t end 2:0, the next one has virtually no chance of starting on time. Moving everything online made things even worse, as extra time is lost setting up webcams, connecting players to servers, and so on.
When ESL announced the format change for 2026 last autumn, they spoke about helping teams organize bootcamps. In practice, however, half the teams played from home, and we constantly ran into completely ridiculous problems for a tournament with this kind of history and a $1,000,000 prize pool. A phone used as a webcam running out of battery, or the tape holding said phone coming undone. The result: endless technical pauses, slower gameplay, schedule delays, and more.
It’s possible that ESL offered assistance but organizations turned it down. If that’s the case, next time they must insist on play from verified locations with their own staff member on-site.
Key Disappointments and the Playoff Bracket
You’d think that with Vitality skipping the tournament and Falcons also choosing not to participate, this would be a great chance for other top teams to secure a playoff spot. Yet PARIVISION and Liquid couldn’t even make it out of Stage 2, while FaZe, G2, and FURIA all fell short of the top 8. Everyone has their reasons: jame’s young squad was likely just burnt out, FaZe and Liquid look close to disbanding, and G2 were genuinely unlucky (they actually played decently). As for FURIA — even had they made the playoffs, they’d have been playing without FalleN, who has urgent matters in Brazil. Some linked their poor run to a lack of motivation; others went as far as suggesting the guys intentionally threw the group stage.
In the end, FUT, Legacy, and Astralis surprisingly made the playoffs after coming through Stage 1. Whether they can replicate that on LAN is what we’re here to figure out.
Astralis vs Spirit
- Dragons advance — 80% chance
Despite Spirit being far from their best form, donk and company are still obligated to get past Astralis. The Dragons don’t play Inferno (Astralis’s best map) and feel very comfortable on Nuke, Overpass, and Ancient — maps their quarterfinal opponents love to pick. The massive gap in individual player skill also can’t be ignored. Sure, Astralis have looked quite solid at this tournament and even outperform Spirit in terms of team coordination, but not enough to believe in an upset.
HooXi has done a great job integrating the new players, unlocked Staerh’s potential, and Astralis currently look much better than they did with device and Magisk. The one ace up their sleeve could be the crowd, which will undoubtedly support the Scandinavian players. However, Spirit are used to playing in front of a roaring crowd, and for donk in particular, that’s extra motivation to show his best CS.
Legacy vs Aurora
- 55–45 — Legacy are the favorites
Many of you might disagree with this prediction, since the teams already met in the group stage, where Aurora won. But that match ended 2:1, with the Brazilians losing both maps only in overtime. Legacy have looked very solid throughout the event — going through Stage 1 undefeated, beating G2 and PARIVISION, and then taking down Astralis and NAVI in Stage 2. It’s worth recalling that last year this team won the CS Asia Championship in China and reached the grand final of PGL Bucharest, where they narrowly lost to Aurora 2:3. After that, they replaced their captain, with veteran arT — long known for his aggressive, reckless style from his FURIA days — stepping in for lux.
Yes, the Brazilians don’t have much experience playing on a big stage, but remember what happens with Aurora? The stage is clearly not a Turkish advantage — even against Legacy. The map pool isn’t in their favor either, as the Brazilians don’t play Anubis. So this matchup is very much up in the air. We give a slight edge to Legacy and are confident that’s far from baseless.
The MongolZ vs NAVI
- 60–40 in favor of The MongolZ
Honestly, this prediction hinges on a fairly debatable factor — raw aim. Of course, the genius of B1ad3 will prepare the team well and build a solid game plan, but as the classic saying goes: “They watch demos, we practice aim. They adjust tactics, we do 2v2 duels. If someone puts one in your head, there’s nothing you can do, no matter where you go.”
Strangely enough, that’s exactly the rule that should apply in this match, because NAVI’s players are far from their peak form, and no matter how well their coach prepares them — the Mongolians will simply out-aim them. The only thing the Born to Win squad can hope for is that The MongolZ don’t show up and stop hitting their shots. If we were confident that both teams will look exactly the same as they did in the group stage, we’d give the Mongolians well over 60%.
MOUZ vs FUT
- 65–35 — MOUZ win
Probably the most intriguing quarterfinal — the favorite seems obvious, but the opponent is so unpredictable and dangerous that they could ruin MOUZ’s evening. FUT have burst into 2026 with great energy and are playing bold, aggressive CS the likes of which we haven’t seen in a long time. That style is also their weakness, though, and a team like MOUZ should be able to tame the aggressive youngsters.
For FUT, this will be one of their first games on a big stage, while MOUZ have learned to handle the nerves over the past two years (not counting their games against Vitality). The Mice’s main kryptonite teams are also absent from the tournament, which should give them confidence and a genuine “shot at the trophy” mindset. Playing with that mentality is much easier, and FUT shouldn’t pose a serious obstacle here.
Who Will Be Champion?
Clearly, the two main contenders right now are Spirit and MOUZ — the only teams yet to lose at EPL S23. If forced to choose between them, Spirit’s side of the bracket looks noticeably easier than MOUZ’s, and few would argue otherwise. From that perspective, Spirit should be considered the primary favorite. That said, if MOUZ do make the grand final, we wouldn’t be quite so confident in donk’s squad. Spirit don’t currently look like a team ready to grind through 5 maps in a BO5, which is a concern.
Predicted Win Probabilities for ESL Pro League S23:
- Spirit – 34.0%
- MOUZ – 24.2%
- The Mongolz – 11.1%
- NAVI – 10.3%
- Legacy – 6.8%
- Aurora – 5.6%
- FUT – 5.0%
- Astralis – 3.0%
Author: Alex
Alex is an author and esports observer with more than seven years of experience. He specializes in analyzing new releases in the world of computer games, gaming services, and in-game economies. Alex shares practical experience and an expert perspective on the development of gaming, helping readers understand complex mechanics and stay up to date with the latest news.
