IEM Chengdu 2025 Playoff Predictions. Each Team’s Chances of Victory
The Chinese tournament from ESL started just 4 days ago and has already reached the home stretch. Out of 16 teams, only 6 contenders remain for the trophy, and two teams are already one step closer than their opponents, as they’re waiting in the semifinals. In this article, we’ll recap what happened in the group stage and assess each team’s chances of winning another world championship.
Group Stage Events
IEM Chengdu 2025 gathered all the strongest teams, who chose this event for good reason – the battle for Season 6 Grand Slam is underway here. Currently, only two teams are in the race for the gold bars – Vitality with 2 victories and Spirit with one point in the bank. Undoubtedly, the temptation to join this race at a stage where the leaders haven’t pulled too far ahead is very strong, but most of the favorites were eliminated already in the groups.
The biggest sensation was Team Spirit’s elimination, who lost to Falcons and The MongolZ. The Dragons currently look very confused, and while the match against Falcons could be attributed to the Falcons’ incredible form, there were no excuses left against the Mongolians, who are also experiencing roster problems.
NAVI, FaZe, G2 were regular playoff participants not so long ago, and now we’re saying goodbye to them in the tournament’s first days. The home teams (TYLOO and Lynn Vision) managed to delight their fans with performances in the arena, as half of the group stage matches took place with spectators, but they also failed to show results. The presence of an arena in the groups is an important point worth noting before moving on to playoff match analysis. Thanks to it, we were able to identify the local crowd’s favorites – those the stadium will support until the very end.
Vitality vs Astralis
HooXi’s magic continues to work, and the Dane somehow once again leads his team to the quarterfinals. Astralis’ game doesn’t look particularly special, the guys play off opponent mistakes, often quite passively, but this “careful” CS allowed them to win the deciding match against The MongolZ. The match against Falcons showed that the Danes are far from the top in terms of individual skill and can be shut down even by a couple of players in prime form.
In Vitality, any of the five players can become such players, even apEX, so their chances of winning the quarterfinal are extremely high. While it may not make much sense, looking at the map veto, all indicators are also in Vitality’s favor – they don’t play Ancient (Astralis’ best map), and on all others their win rate is significantly higher. Some might say that ZywOo and company don’t look that formidable and advanced to playoffs through the lower bracket (where they almost lost Dust 2 to G2, who were playing with their coach instead of huNter). Yes, that’s all true, but the match against MOUZ was very close, and remembering the championship ESL Pro League S22 – the team gains form as the tournament progresses.
Of course, we keep in mind the slip-up against Virtus.pro, but we still believe that Astralis is not the opponent capable of stopping Vitality. The Bees really want to secure their third victory for the Grand Slam and come to IEM Krakow 2026 (ex-Katowice) for the gold bars.
Vitality victory with 90% probability
FURIA vs The MongolZ
This matchup is much more competitive, but identifying the favorite is still not difficult. We never cease to admire FURIA, who assembled this experimental roster, won 2 trophies, and almost always reach playoff stages. Unfortunately, this fact also has negative consequences, because staying at tournaments until late stages means you have fewer rest days between tournaments. The Brazilians are already openly talking about feeling burnout, but still continue to demonstrate very cool and quality CS. The match against MOUZ is another proof that the guys deservedly sit in the top-5.
The MongolZ captured the news cycle of the past two weeks after the sensational information about Senzu being moved to the bench. Rumors immediately spread about internal conflicts, cheating, and other not-so-pleasant speculations, but officially the organization hasn’t explained this decision in any way. We’ll settle on the version about the young player’s burnout, and in our article about modern competitive CS problems, we already put forward the theory that this could become a systemic problem.
As you can understand, the Mongolians came to China without their main star and clearly not in the best mental state. Perhaps that’s why the replacement is now 28-year-old controlez, and not another young talent. The veteran player was captain on his previous team and even without much experience playing in such arenas, shows composure on the server. In his debut match, he became the best player, and in some matches made comebacks in individual stats after conditional 2/10 or 0/8 on the scoreboard. The Mongolians, while looking disjointed in places, still exceeded many expectations and demonstrate decent CS.
Therefore, we wouldn’t talk about FURIA’s unconditional victory in this match, although they are the obvious favorites. First of all, the Mongolians already achieved a result above expectations, and however the game ends – fans will only thank them for a good result. Playing without additional pressure is always an advantage that sometimes allows you to beat even a very formidable opponent.
In this matchup, FURIA are favorites at 60-65 percent.
MOUZ
The Mice are one of the most surprising teams, showing gorgeous CS and you’ll almost never see disastrous matches from them. But they always “hit a wall” in the final stages of tournaments. Most likely, this time to win they’ll have to beat Vitality once again, and in a potential grand final, Falcons loom with m0NESY in crazy form.
For MOUZ, this tournament will be another test, there’s no other way to describe it. As a team, there are no complaints about them, so the question about their championship can only be answered with “we won’t be surprised,” but whether this victory will happen – some doubts arise.
Falcons
Has this machine finally started? So far, everything looks exactly that way. It feels like the team worked on Inferno, but of course the main driving force is Ilya m0NESY’s performance. The Chinese region loves the Russian sniper so much that even TYLOO and Lynn Vision players call him an “idol.” Perhaps this support and energy fuels the young player, because the arena will 100% root for him, NiKo, and kyousuke.
It feels like the guys are now the main contender for the trophy, as the semifinal opponents should be manageable, but in BO5 everything might not go so smoothly. Although we now see one of the best Ancient performances on the pro scene, for example, Vitality perma-ban it, and the same Inferno was unlikely patched up enough to beat not only TYLOO, but also MOUZ. However, right now everything is shaping up so that Falcons are closer than the rest to winning IEM Chengdu 2025.
Final Victory Chances
- Falcons: 34.4%
- MOUZ: 25.8%
- Vitality: 22.8%
- FURIA: 12.5%
- The MongolZ: 3.1%
- Astralis: 1.4%
Author: Alex
Alex is an author and esports observer with more than seven years of experience. He specializes in analyzing new releases in the world of computer games, gaming services, and in-game economies. Alex shares practical experience and an expert perspective on the development of gaming, helping readers understand complex mechanics and stay up to date with the latest news.
